<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.2 20190208//EN" "http://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.2/JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="brief-report" dtd-version="1.2" xml:lang="en">
    <front>
        <journal-meta>
            <journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">F1000Research</journal-id>
            <journal-title-group>
                <journal-title>F1000Research</journal-title>
            </journal-title-group>
            <issn pub-type="epub">2046-1402</issn>
            <publisher>
                <publisher-name>F1000 Research Limited</publisher-name>
                <publisher-loc>London, UK</publisher-loc>
            </publisher>
        </journal-meta>
        <article-meta>
            <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.12688/f1000research.25309.1</article-id>
            <article-categories>
                <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
                    <subject>Brief Report</subject>
                </subj-group>
                <subj-group>
                    <subject>Articles</subject>
                </subj-group>
            </article-categories>
            <title-group>
                <article-title>Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in American countries with regards to non-pharmacological interventions</article-title>
                <fn-group content-type="pub-status">
                    <fn>
                        <p>[version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations]</p>
                    </fn>
                </fn-group>
            </title-group>
            <contrib-group>
                <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
                    <name>
                        <surname>Manrique-Abril</surname>
                        <given-names>Fred G.</given-names>
                    </name>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Conceptualization</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Data Curation</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Formal Analysis</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Funding Acquisition</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Investigation</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Methodology</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Project Administration</role>
                    <uri content-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0723-3240</uri>
                    <xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c1">a</xref>
                    <xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1">1</xref>
                    <xref ref-type="aff" rid="a2">2</xref>
                </contrib>
                <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
                    <name>
                        <surname>T&#x00e9;llez-Pi&#x00f1;erez</surname>
                        <given-names>Cristian</given-names>
                    </name>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Data Curation</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Formal Analysis</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Methodology</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Software</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Validation</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Writing &#x2013; Original Draft Preparation</role>
                    <uri content-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3869-1831</uri>
                    <xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3">3</xref>
                </contrib>
                <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
                    <name>
                        <surname>Pacheco-L&#x00f3;pez</surname>
                        <given-names>Mario</given-names>
                    </name>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Data Curation</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Formal Analysis</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Investigation</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Software</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Supervision</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Visualization</role>
                    <role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/">Writing &#x2013; Original Draft Preparation</role>
                    <uri content-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4752-703X</uri>
                    <xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3">3</xref>
                </contrib>
                <aff id="a1">
                    <label>1</label>Facultad de Enfermer&#x00ed;a, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogot&#x00e1;, Colombia</aff>
                <aff id="a2">
                    <label>2</label>Facultad de ciencias de la salud, Universidad Pedag&#x00f3;gica y Tecnol&#x00f3;gica de Colombia, Tunja, Colombia</aff>
                <aff id="a3">
                    <label>3</label>Departamento de Matem&#x00e1;ticas, Universidad El Bosque, Bogot&#x00e1;, Colombia</aff>
            </contrib-group>
            <author-notes>
                <corresp id="c1">
                    <label>a</label>
                    <email xlink:href="mailto:fgmanriquea@unal.edu.co">fgmanriquea@unal.edu.co</email>
                </corresp>
                <fn fn-type="conflict">
                    <p>No competing interests were disclosed.</p>
                </fn>
            </author-notes>
            <pub-date pub-type="epub">
                <day>31</day>
                <month>7</month>
                <year>2020</year>
            </pub-date>
            <pub-date pub-type="collection">
                <year>2020</year>
            </pub-date>
            <volume>9</volume>
            <elocation-id>868</elocation-id>
            <history>
                <date date-type="accepted">
                    <day>28</day>
                    <month>7</month>
                    <year>2020</year>
                </date>
            </history>
            <permissions>
                <copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x00a9; 2020 Manrique-Abril FG et al.</copyright-statement>
                <copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
                <license xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
                    <license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p>
                </license>
            </permissions>
            <self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://f1000research.com/articles/9-868/pdf"/>
            <abstract>
                <p>This study aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number (
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic>) and the time-varying estimate of effective reproductive number (
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>)  of COVID-19 in American countries as they implemented non-pharmacological strategies for the containment of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Data sources included COVID-19 epidemic data from Johns Hopkins University&#x2019; data repository and official websites of countries with a relatively high incidence of COVID-19. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic> and 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>. The results showed that El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Peru have the lowest
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic>, while the USA and Canada have the highest. Other American countries have an 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic> around 1.4. Countries could be divided into three groups based on the varied behavior of 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> over time. The first group (Mexico, USA, Colombia and Brazil) started with a high
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>, which decreased post-intervention. In the second group, the intervention was performed at the moment when the
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>, is high and it decreased slowly post-intervention (Canada, Argentina, Chile Peru, Panama and Dominican Republic). In the third group (Bolivia, Peru and Guatemala), the
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>, was erratic and could not be attributable to the intervention.</p>
                <p>There is a close relationship between 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> and non-pharmacological interventions decreed by governments of countries for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are also immediate changes in the behavior of the indicator, and therefore the progression of the outbreak, when the interventions were implemented closer to the index case for each country.</p>
            </abstract>
            <kwd-group kwd-group-type="author">
                <kwd>Reproduction number</kwd>
                <kwd>effective reproductive number</kwd>
                <kwd>COVID-19</kwd>
                <kwd>American countries</kwd>
            </kwd-group>
            <funding-group>
                <funding-statement>The author(s) declared that no grants were involved in supporting this work.</funding-statement>
            </funding-group>
        </article-meta>
    </front>
    <body>
        <sec sec-type="intro">
            <title>Introduction</title>
            <p>On January 21, the first case of COVID-19 in the United States
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-1">1</xref>
                </sup>  was announced in a traveler who had arrived in the country from China 5 days earlier. Wuhan, China is where the health emergency originated
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-2">2</xref>
                </sup> in December 2019. From late January, the North American continent started to see case reports in different states, with cases arriving in South America on February 26 through Brazil after passing through Central America and the Caribbean
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-3">3</xref>
                </sup>. Today, America is the epicentre of the pandemic, with the USA and Brazil being the two largest countries with the most cases. In addition, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Canada, Colombia and Ecuador are among the top 25 countries with the highest incidence worldwide.</p>
            <p>Since then, governments across the region have implemented a series of non-pharmacological measures to protect their citizens and contain the spread of COVID-19. All South American countries, including the French overseas region of French Guiana and the Falkland Islands, have reported the presence of coronavirus within their borders, and all took measures at different times of the outbreak.</p>
            <p>Non-pharmacological measures of containment (mitigation and suppression) have been implemented from the index case on different dates in each country
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-2">2</xref>,
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-4">4</xref>&#x2013;
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-6">6</xref>
                </sup>. This is based on projections of contagion and lethality resulting from SIR epidemiological models (susceptible, infected and recovered)
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-7">7</xref>
                </sup> with data taken from the behavior of the virus in Asia and Europe especially, and with approximations to the basic reproduction number (
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic>)
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-8">8</xref>,
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-9">9</xref>
                </sup>, effective reproduction number (
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>e</sub>
                </italic>), and variable time estimation of 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>e</sub>
                </italic> (
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic>), among others. 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> estimates the speed with which a disease can spread in a population and plays a crucial role in predicting the prevalence of infectious disease, in addition to better understanding an epidemic outbreak and preparing the corresponding public health response. 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> is the reproduction number at time t, which reveals the actual transmission rate of the virus at a given moment. This number will vary depending on the control protocols established in each country.</p>
            <p>Mitigation measures are aimed at slowing down the spread of infection by progressively reducing 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic>
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-10">10</xref>
                </sup>. Suppression measures aim to reduce 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> below 1, to progressively decrease the number of cases until they disappear. The greatest challenge that this strategy entails is that it needs to be maintained until the pandemic has disappeared or an effective treatment or vaccine is available
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-6">6</xref>,
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-10">10</xref>,
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-11">11</xref>
                </sup>. The estimation of 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> and 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> in different scenarios allows a better prognosis of the trends of the global epidemic
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-12">12</xref>
                </sup>, in addition to evaluating the effectiveness in reducing transmission with the measures taken by the different countries to contain COVID-19
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-11">11</xref>
                </sup>.</p>
            <p>While this article was being prepared, the 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> and 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> values of some countries were published and modeled in three intervention scenarios; however, they only included the United States and Argentina from the American continent, limiting the comparative analysis for the characteristics of America
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-13">13</xref>
                </sup>. Previous work has calculated the 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> and 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> using the maximum likelihood method and sequential Bayesian method, and found that European and North American countries possessed a higher 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> and unsteady 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> fluctuations, whereas some heavily affected Asian countries showed a relatively low 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> and declining 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic>  , with a small number of patients in Africa and Latin America, yet with the potential risk of large outbreaks. Xu 
                <italic toggle="yes">et al.</italic>
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-13">13</xref>
                </sup> who determined 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> as an indicator to measure the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 before and after interventions, showed that the change in the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is associated with reducing social interactions.</p>
            <p>This study aimed to estimate 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>0</sub>
                </italic> and 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> in multiple countries of the American continent and evaluate their behavior from the first (index) case in each country, and the time of implementation of the chosen non-pharmacological containment measures.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec sec-type="methods">
            <title>Methods</title>
            <sec>
                <title>Data sources</title>
                <p>COVID-19 epidemic data were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University data repository (
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/">https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/</ext-link>). This information was verified using official country websites, and these websites were also used to collect data about non-pharmacological interventions (
                    <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref>). We selected countries with a relatively high incidence of COVID-19, as follows: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and the USA. Data were collected from the date on which the first case was reported in the country to June 12, 2020.</p>
                <table-wrap id="T1" orientation="portrait" position="anchor">
                    <label>Table 1. </label>
                    <caption>
                        <title>Data sources by country used for verification of COVID-19 case data from Johns Hopkins University data repository (
                            <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/">https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/</ext-link>).</title>
                    </caption>
                    <table content-type="article-table" frame="hsides">
                        <thead>
                            <tr>
                                <th align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Country</th>
                                <th align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Official website used</th>
                            </tr>
                        </thead>
                        <tbody>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Argentina</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top"> 

                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.argentina.gob.ar/coronavirus/informe-diario">https://www.argentina.gob.ar/coronavirus/informe-diario</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Bolivia</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.minsalud.gob.bo/">https://www.minsalud.gob.bo/</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Brazil</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://susanalitico.saude.gov.br/extensions/covid-19_html/covid-19_html.html">https://susanalitico.saude.gov.br/extensions/covid-19_html/covid-19_html.html</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Canada</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html">https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Colombia</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://minsalud.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/e18894fa4dd546d094e8267179562413">https://minsalud.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/e18894fa4dd546d094e8267179562413</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Chile</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.minsal.cl/nuevo-coronavirus-2019-ncov/casos-confirmados-en-chile-covid-19/">https://www.minsal.cl/nuevo-coronavirus-2019-ncov/casos-confirmados-en-chile-covid-19/</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Dominican
                                    <break/>Republic</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.msp.gob.do/web/?page_id=6948">https://www.msp.gob.do/web/?page_id=6948</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Ecuador</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.salud.gob.ec/coronavirus-covid-19/">https://www.salud.gob.ec/coronavirus-covid-19/</ext-link>
                                </td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">El Salvador</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://covid19.gob.sv/">https://covid19.gob.sv/</ext-link>
</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Guatemala</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://tablerocovid.mspas.gob.gt/">https://tablerocovid.mspas.gob.gt/</ext-link>
</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Honduras</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.salud.gob.hn/site/index.php/covid19">http://www.salud.gob.hn/site/index.php/covid19</ext-link>
</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Mexico</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.gob.mx/salud/documentos/coronavirus-covid-19-comunicado-tecnico-diario-238449">https://www.gob.mx/salud/documentos/coronavirus-covid-19-comunicado-tecnico-diario-238449</ext-link>
</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Panama</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://minsa.gob.pa/destacado/coronavirus-covid-19">http://minsa.gob.pa/destacado/coronavirus-covid-19</ext-link>
</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">Peru</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://covid19.minsa.gob.pe/sala_situacional.asp">https://covid19.minsa.gob.pe/sala_situacional.asp</ext-link>
</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">USA</td>
                                <td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="top">
                                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/index.html">https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/index.html</ext-link>
</td>
                            </tr>
                        </tbody>
                    </table>
                </table-wrap>
            </sec>
            <sec>
                <title>Data analysis</title>
                <p>We used the COVID-19 daily incidence to estimate the basic reproduction number (
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic>) and the time-varying reproduction number (
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>) with packages 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic>
                    <sup>
                        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-14">14</xref>
                    </sup> and EpiEstim
                    <sup>
                        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-15">15</xref>
                    </sup> on R software (version 4.0.1), respectively. 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> was calculated using a serial interval 
                    <italic toggle="yes">(SI)</italic> with a mean of 7.5 and a standard deviation of 3.4
                    <sup>
                        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-2">2</xref>
                    </sup>. The incubation period used was 5 days, taking into account the mean incubation period in 
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-16">16</xref> of 5.0 days (95% CI, 4.2&#x2013;6.0), the median incubation period estimated in 
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-17">17</xref> of 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5&#x2013;5.8 days), and the mean incubation period in 
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-2">2</xref> of 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.1&#x2013;7.0). We used the maximum likelihood method to estimate both 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic> and 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>. </p>
            </sec>
        </sec>
        <sec sec-type="results">
            <title>Results</title>
            <sec>
                <title>Basic reproduction number (
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic>)</title>
                <p>El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Peru have the lowest 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic>; in contrast, the USA and Canada have the highest. Other countries have an 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>0</sub>
                    </italic> around 1.4 (
                    <xref ref-type="fig" rid="f1">Figure 1</xref>).</p>
                <fig fig-type="figure" id="f1" orientation="portrait" position="float">
                    <label>Figure 1. </label>
                    <caption>
                        <title>Basic reproduction number by country.</title>
                    </caption>
                    <graphic orientation="portrait" position="float" xlink:href="https://f1000research-files.f1000.com/manuscripts/27933/207b5a03-4ac1-426d-88cc-8d4c994011e6_figure1.gif"/>
                </fig>
            </sec>
            <sec>
                <title>Time-varying effective reproductive number (
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>)</title>
                <p>Countries could be divided into three groups based on the varied behavior of 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> over time (
                    <xref ref-type="fig" rid="f2">Figure 2</xref>&#x2013;
                    <xref ref-type="fig" rid="f4">Figure 4</xref>). The first group (Mexico, USA, Colombia and Brazil) started with a high 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>, which decreased post-intervention. In the second group (Canada, Argentina, Chile Peru, Panama and Dominican Republic), the intervention was performed at the moment when the 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>, is high and this then decreased slowly post-intervention. In the third group (Bolivia, Peru and Guatemala), the 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> is erratic and cannot be attributable to the intervention; the 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> increases and decreases without any explanation.</p>
                <p>Analysis by regions (North, Central and South America) shows differences between regions and countries. The countries of North America have a low 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic>, which increased over time. Post-intervention control is achieved by a progressive decrease in all cases in Canada, Mexico and the USA. The behavior of the Dominican Republic and the countries of Central America is similar. Excepting Bolivia, Guatemala and Peru, the countries of South America and Central America show a similar behavior to the first group; the 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> is high at the beginning and decreases suddenly after control measures. However, Peru had a considerable peak after intervention implementation, as did Chile and Panama. This is possibly related to the flexible measures of mass community isolation</p>
                <p>Despite the differences between the first and second group, the 
                    <italic toggle="yes">R
                        <sub>t</sub>
                    </italic> is high before the intervention in all countries and its decrease is achieved post-intervention, corroborating the purpose of these interventions in the mitigation and suppression of a pandemic.</p>
                <fig fig-type="figure" id="f2" orientation="portrait" position="float">
                    <label>Figure 2. </label>
                    <caption>
                        <title>Time-varying effective reproductive number by country in North America.</title>
                        <p>The dotted horizontal line shows the target of 1 at 
                            <italic toggle="yes">R
                                <sub>t</sub>
                            </italic>, and the vertical line represents the start date of the containment measures decreed in each country. Although there is a difference in the days, there is also a difference in the size of the countries, both in surface area and number of inhabitants that would allow mobility and different behavior of virus spread.</p>
                    </caption>
                    <graphic orientation="portrait" position="float" xlink:href="https://f1000research-files.f1000.com/manuscripts/27933/207b5a03-4ac1-426d-88cc-8d4c994011e6_figure2.gif"/>
                </fig>
                <fig fig-type="figure" id="f3" orientation="portrait" position="float">
                    <label>Figure 3. </label>
                    <caption>
                        <title>Time-varying effective reproductive number by country in South America.</title>
                        <p>The dotted horizontal line shows the target of 1 at 
                            <italic toggle="yes">R
                                <sub>t</sub>
                            </italic>, and the vertical line represents the start date of the containment measures decreed in each country. Although there is a difference in the days, there is also a difference in the size of the countries, both in surface area and number of inhabitants that would allow mobility and different behavior of virus spread.</p>
                    </caption>
                    <graphic orientation="portrait" position="float" xlink:href="https://f1000research-files.f1000.com/manuscripts/27933/207b5a03-4ac1-426d-88cc-8d4c994011e6_figure3.gif"/>
                </fig>
                <fig fig-type="figure" id="f4" orientation="portrait" position="float">
                    <label>Figure 4. </label>
                    <caption>
                        <title>Time-varying effective reproductive number by country in Central America.</title>
                        <p>The dotted horizontal line shows the target of 1 at 
                            <italic toggle="yes">R
                                <sub>t</sub>
                            </italic>, and the vertical line represents the start date of the containment measures decreed in each country. Although there is a difference in the days, there is also a difference in the size of the countries, both in surface area and number of inhabitants that would allow mobility and different behavior of virus spread.</p>
                    </caption>
                    <graphic orientation="portrait" position="float" xlink:href="https://f1000research-files.f1000.com/manuscripts/27933/207b5a03-4ac1-426d-88cc-8d4c994011e6_figure4.gif"/>
                </fig>
            </sec>
        </sec>
        <sec sec-type="discussion">
            <title>Discussion</title>
            <p>The   for the countries selected in this study was 1.2&#x2013;1.8, which is much lower compared to China where it was reported to be 2.2, 2.6, 3.8, or even 6.47 according to different research
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-2">2</xref>,
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-18">18</xref>
                </sup>. Our study findings agree with Xu 
                <italic toggle="yes">et al.</italic>
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-13">13</xref>
                </sup> in the estimated   for the United States and Argentina. The 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> for these countries is also identical to that found by Xu 
                <italic toggle="yes">et al</italic>.</p>
            <p>As in the study by Xu 
                <italic toggle="yes">et al.</italic>
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-13">13</xref>
                </sup>, there are some limitations to the current study. First, the variation in   depends on the series interval. Here, we assume 7.5 days for the 13 countries due to limited information on the disease in different nations
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-13">13</xref>
                </sup>. In addition, we noticed some errors in the John Hopkins University data when we cross referenced these with official country websites. We were able to correct these by searching for cases directly on the official website of each country. Another drawback is the diversity of RT-PCR (real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) tests used in the diagnostic process and their sensitivity, which may throw up false negatives, perhaps under-estimating the true impact of the pandemic in various countries. Although data were available from other countries, in the case of Ecuador, the report was not included, because cases were not confirmed by RT-PCR, which is a that s technical criteria.</p>
            <p>The epidemic trends in different regions around the world are significantly different due to the great difference in the design and implementation of prevention and control measures
                <sup>
                    <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-5">5</xref>
                </sup>. Estimates of both 
                <italic toggle="yes">R</italic>
                <sub>0</sub> and 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> in different countries will enable a better forecast of global epidemic trends.</p>
            <p>In conclusions, our study shows that there is a close relationship between 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic> and non-pharmacological interventions decreed by countries&#x2019; governments for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we showed that there are immediate changes in the behavior of the 
                <italic toggle="yes">R
                    <sub>t</sub>
                </italic>, and therefore in the progression of the outbreak, when the interventions are implemented closer to the index case for each country.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec>
            <title>Data availability</title>
            <sec>
                <title>Underlying data</title>
                <p>Zenodo: DataStatistic/COVID19RtAme: Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in American countries, 
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957967">http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957967</ext-link>
                    <sup>
                        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-19">19</xref>
                    </sup>.</p>
                <p>This project contains the following underlying data:
                    <list list-type="bullet">
                        <list-item>
                            <label/>
                            <p>Dataset and data dictionary</p>
                        </list-item>
                        <list-item>
                            <label/>
                            <p>R analysis code</p>
                        </list-item>
                    </list>
</p>
                <p>Data are available under the terms of the 
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license</ext-link> (CC-BY 4.0).</p>
            </sec>
        </sec>
    </body>
    <back>
        <ref-list>
            <ref id="ref-1">
                <label>1</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <collab>Telemundo.com</collab>:
                    <article-title>El coronavirus llega a Estados Unidos reportan el primer caso de la enfermedad cerca de Seattle Telemundo</article-title>. Telemundo.com.<year>2020</year>;<fpage>1</fpage>.
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.telemundo.com/noticias/2020/01/21/el-coronavirus-llega-estados-unidos-reportan-el-primer-caso-de-la-enfermedad-cerca-de-tmna3650728">Reference Source</ext-link>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-2">
                <label>2</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Li</surname>
                            <given-names>Q</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Guan</surname>
                            <given-names>X</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Wu</surname>
                            <given-names>P</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">N Engl J Med.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<volume>382</volume>(<issue>13</issue>):<fpage>1199</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>1207</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">31995857</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1056/NEJMoa2001316</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">7121484</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-3">
                <label>3</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Horwitz</surname>
                            <given-names>L</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Nagovitch</surname>
                            <given-names>P</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Sonneland</surname>
                            <given-names>HK</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Where is the coronavirus in Latin America?</article-title>AS/COA - Americas Society Council of the Americas.<year>2020</year>.
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/coronavirus-latin-america">Reference Source</ext-link>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-4">
                <label>4</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Markel</surname>
                            <given-names>H</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Stern</surname>
                            <given-names>AM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Navarro</surname>
                            <given-names>JA</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Non-pharmaceutical influenza mitigation strategies, US communities, 1918&#x2013;1920 pandemic.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Emerg Infect Dis.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2006</year>;<volume>12</volume>(<issue>12</issue>):<fpage>1961</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>4</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17326953</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3201/eid1212.060506</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">3291356</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-5">
                <label>5</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Garcia</surname>
                            <given-names>LP</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Duarte</surname>
                            <given-names>E</given-names>
                        </name>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Interven&#x00e7;&#x00f5;es n&#x00e3;o farmacol&#x00f3;gicas para o enfrentamento &#x00e0; epidemia da COVID-19 no Brasil.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Epidemiol e Serv saude Rev do Sist Unico Saude do Bras.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<volume>29</volume>(<issue>2</issue>):<fpage>e2020222</fpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">32294756</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5123/S1679-49742020000200009</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-6">
                <label>6</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Prem</surname>
                            <given-names>K</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Liu</surname>
                            <given-names>Y</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Russell</surname>
                            <given-names>TW</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Lancet Public Health.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<volume>5</volume>(<issue>5</issue>):<fpage>e261</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>70</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">32220655</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">7158905</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-7">
                <label>7</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Manrique-Abril</surname>
                            <given-names>FG</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Agudelo-Calderon</surname>
                            <given-names>CA</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Gonz&#x00e1;lez-Chord&#x00e1;</surname>
                            <given-names>VM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Rev Salud P&#x00fa;blica.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<volume>22</volume>(<issue>2</issue>):<fpage>1</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>9</lpage>.
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/revsaludpublica/article/view/85977">Reference Source</ext-link>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-8">
                <label>8</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Guerra</surname>
                            <given-names>FM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Bolotin</surname>
                            <given-names>S</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Lim</surname>
                            <given-names>G</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>The basic reproduction number (R
                        <sub>0</sub>) of measles: a systematic review.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Lancet Infect Dis.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2017</year>;<volume>17</volume>(<issue>12</issue>):<fpage>e420</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>8</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">28757186</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30307-9</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-9">
                <label>9</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <collab>World Health Organization (WHO)</collab>:
                    <article-title>Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)</article-title>. WHO-China Jt Mission Coronavirus Dis 2019.<year>2020</year>; 1: 40.
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pd">Reference Source</ext-link>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-10">
                <label>10</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Gonz&#x00e1;lez-Jaramillo</surname>
                            <given-names>V</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Gonz&#x00e1;lez-Jaramillo</surname>
                            <given-names>N</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>G&#x00f3;mez-Restrepo</surname>
                            <given-names>C</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Colombian population according to mitigation measures. Preliminary data from epidemiological models for the period March 18 to April 18, 2020.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Rev Salud P&#x00fa;blica.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<volume>22</volume>(<issue>2</issue>):<fpage>1</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>6</lpage>.
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/revsaludpublica/article/view/85789">Reference Source</ext-link>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-11">
                <label>11</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Ferguson</surname>
                            <given-names>NM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Laydon</surname>
                            <given-names>D</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Nedjati-Gilani</surname>
                            <given-names>G</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">ImperialAcUk.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<fpage>3</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>20</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.25561/77482</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-12">
                <label>12</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Ridenhour</surname>
                            <given-names>B</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Kowalik</surname>
                            <given-names>JM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Shay</surname>
                            <given-names>DK</given-names>
                        </name>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>El n&#x00fa;mero reproductivo b&#x00e1;sico (
                        <italic toggle="yes">R</italic>
                        <sub>0</sub>): Consideraciones para su aplicacio&#x00e9;n en la salud p&#x00fa;blica.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Am J Public Health.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2018</year>;<volume>108</volume>(<issue>Suppl 6</issue>):<fpage>S455</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>65</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.2105/AJPH.2013.301704s</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">6291769</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-13">
                <label>13</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Xu</surname>
                            <given-names>C</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Dong</surname>
                            <given-names>Y</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Yu</surname>
                            <given-names>X</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Front Med.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<fpage>1</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>10</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">32468343</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1007/s11684-020-0787-4</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">7255828</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-14">
                <label>14</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Obadia</surname>
                            <given-names>T</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Haneef</surname>
                            <given-names>R</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Bo&#x00eb;lle</surname>
                            <given-names>PY</given-names>
                        </name>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>The R0 package: a toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">BMC Med Inf Decis Mak.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2012</year>;<volume>12</volume>:<fpage>147</fpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23249562</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1186/1472-6947-12-147</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">3582628</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-15">
                <label>15</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Cori</surname>
                            <given-names>A</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Ferguson</surname>
                            <given-names>NM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Fraser</surname>
                            <given-names>C</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Am J Epidemiol.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2013</year>;<volume>178</volume>(<issue>9</issue>):<fpage>1505</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>12</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">24043437</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwt133</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">3816335</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-16">
                <label>16</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Linton</surname>
                            <given-names>NM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Kobayashi</surname>
                            <given-names>T</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Yang</surname>
                            <given-names>Y</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">J Clin Med.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<volume>9</volume>(<issue>2</issue>):<fpage>538</fpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">32079150</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi"> 10.3390/jcm9020538</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">7074197</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-17">
                <label>17</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Lauer</surname>
                            <given-names>SA</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Grantz</surname>
                            <given-names>KH</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Bi</surname>
                            <given-names>Q</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Ann Intern Med.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>;<volume>172</volume>(<issue>9</issue>):<fpage>577</fpage>&#x2013;<lpage>82</lpage>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">32150748</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.7326/M20-0504</pub-id>
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="pmcid">7081172</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-18">
                <label>18</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="journal">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Read</surname>
                            <given-names>JM</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Bridgen</surname>
                            <given-names>JR</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Cummings</surname>
                            <given-names>DA</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <etal/>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions.</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">medRxiv.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>.
                    <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549</pub-id>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
            <ref id="ref-19">
                <label>19</label>
                <mixed-citation publication-type="data">
                    <person-group person-group-type="author">

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Mario</surname>
                            <given-names>PL</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Cristian</surname>
                            <given-names>TP</given-names>
                        </name>

                        <name name-style="western">
                            <surname>Fred</surname>
                            <given-names>MA</given-names>
                        </name>
</person-group>:
                    <article-title>DataStatistic/COVID19RtAme: Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in American countries (Version v.1.0.1).</article-title>
                    <source>

                        <italic toggle="yes">Zenodo.</italic>
</source>
                    <year>2020</year>.
                    <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957967">http://www.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957967</ext-link>
                </mixed-citation>
            </ref>
        </ref-list>
    </back>
    <sub-article article-type="reviewer-report" id="report68563">
        <front-stub>
            <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5256/f1000research.27933.r68563</article-id>
            <title-group>
                <article-title>Reviewer response for version 1</article-title>
            </title-group>
            <contrib-group>
                <contrib contrib-type="author">
                    <name>
                        <surname>Riveros-Perez</surname>
                        <given-names>Efrain</given-names>
                    </name>
                    <xref ref-type="aff" rid="r68563a1">1</xref>
                    <role>Referee</role>
                    <uri content-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3874-5783</uri>
                </contrib>
                <aff id="r68563a1">
                    <label>1</label>Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA</aff>
            </contrib-group>
            <author-notes>
                <fn fn-type="conflict">
                    <p>
                        <bold>Competing interests: </bold>No competing interests were disclosed.</p>
                </fn>
            </author-notes>
            <pub-date pub-type="epub">
                <day>11</day>
                <month>8</month>
                <year>2020</year>
            </pub-date>
            <permissions>
                <copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x00a9; 2020 Riveros-Perez E</copyright-statement>
                <copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
                <license xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
                    <license-p>This is an open access peer review report distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p>
                </license>
            </permissions>
            <related-article ext-link-type="doi" id="relatedArticleReport68563" related-article-type="peer-reviewed-article" xlink:href="10.12688/f1000research.25309.1"/>
            <custom-meta-group>
                <custom-meta>
                    <meta-name>recommendation</meta-name>
                    <meta-value>approve-with-reservations</meta-value>
                </custom-meta>
            </custom-meta-group>
        </front-stub>
        <body>
            <p>
                <list list-type="order">
                    <list-item>
                        <p>English grammar is very poor. It impedes adequate understanding of the content. I suggest that the authors use a professional&#x00a0;editing service.</p>
                    </list-item>
                    <list-item>
                        <p>In the title the term "America" is ambiguous. I suggest changing it by North America, Latin America and the Caribbean.</p>
                    </list-item>
                    <list-item>
                        <p>The manuscript is pertinent. However, the discussion needs more depth, contrasting to other authors' views. Please refrain from making value judgements.</p>
                    </list-item>
                    <list-item>
                        <p>The manuscript needs major changes before being considered for indexing.</p>
                    </list-item>
                </list>
            </p>
            <p>Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature?</p>
            <p>No</p>
            <p>If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate?</p>
            <p>Yes</p>
            <p>Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility?</p>
            <p>Yes</p>
            <p>Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound?</p>
            <p>Yes</p>
            <p>Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results?</p>
            <p>Yes</p>
            <p>Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others?</p>
            <p>Yes</p>
            <p>Reviewer Expertise:</p>
            <p>Anesthesiology, critical care, business in healthcare</p>
            <p>I confirm that I have read this submission and believe that I have an appropriate level of expertise to confirm that it is of an acceptable scientific standard, however I have significant reservations, as outlined above.</p>
        </body>
        <sub-article article-type="response" id="comment6127-68563">
            <front-stub>
                <contrib-group>
                    <contrib contrib-type="author">
                        <name>
                            <surname>Manrique-Abril</surname>
                            <given-names>Fred</given-names>
                        </name>
                        <aff>Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia</aff>
                    </contrib>
                </contrib-group>
                <author-notes>
                    <fn fn-type="conflict">
                        <p>
                            <bold>Competing interests: </bold>none</p>
                    </fn>
                </author-notes>
                <pub-date pub-type="epub">
                    <day>17</day>
                    <month>11</month>
                    <year>2020</year>
                </pub-date>
            </front-stub>
            <body>
                <p>Thanks for your contributions, in a future article we will make improvements to achieve an outstanding product. The pandemic data is changing daily and other groups may model the updated Rt.</p>
            </body>
        </sub-article>
        <sub-article article-type="response" id="comment10254-68563">
            <front-stub>
                <contrib-group>
                    <contrib contrib-type="author">
                        <name>
                            <surname>Manrique-Abril</surname>
                            <given-names>Fred</given-names>
                        </name>
                        <aff>Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia</aff>
                    </contrib>
                </contrib-group>
                <author-notes>
                    <fn fn-type="conflict">
                        <p>
                            <bold>Competing interests: </bold>No competing interests were disclosed.</p>
                    </fn>
                </author-notes>
                <pub-date pub-type="epub">
                    <day>19</day>
                    <month>9</month>
                    <year>2023</year>
                </pub-date>
            </front-stub>
            <body>
                <p>Thanks for your review.</p>
            </body>
        </sub-article>
    </sub-article>
</article>
