Water-energy-food nexus in the Great Lakes Region of Africa: Current status and prospects

Biophysical and socioeconomic conditions of the Great Lakes Region of Africa

The Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLRA) has an approximate area coverage of 850,000 km² surfaces of lakes, rivers and wetlands. This is approximately one-quarter of the earth’s area which is covered by the freshwater surface [Chimatiro et al. 2021]. GLRA has no universally defined boundaries, and it is rich of major lakes that traverses freely through the region [Cowx and Ogutu-Owhayo 2019; Chimatiro et al. 2021]. The region has a population of approximately 287 million people that depends highly on fishing and other agricultural related activities [Lowe-McConnell 2003].

The Figure 1 shows the map of the GLRA and the major lake basins and the coastlines found within the region.

Figure 1. The map of Great Lakes Region of Africa showing the major lake basins and coastlines (source: Authors).

Focus countries

The focus countries in this study are Kenya, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda.

The DRC is located in the GLRA in Central Africa bordered with nine other Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries [Hassan and Tularam 2018]. The country enjoys the fame of being the largest in SSA, having a landmass area coverage of 2.34 million km² with vast deposits of natural resources for example; oil, diamonds, copper and cobalt [Hassan and Tularam 2018]. The country serves as Africa’s greater water catchment tower having large amount of both groundwater and surface water reservoir respectively [UNEP 2011]. The country has a population of about 96 million people and thus numerated as the third most populated country in SSA behind Nigeria (214 million) and Ethiopia (120 million) people respectively [World Bank 2022a]. Poverty is widespread in DRC with more than 65 % of the population living below the poverty line ($2.15/day), and it was ranked as the world’s poorest countries [UNDP 2013].

The southern highlands of DRC experiences a cool and dry climate, whereas the alpine climatic conditions are experienced within the Rwenzori Mountains, with a hot and humid climate in the river basin [Kazongo 2016]. The rainfall amount being received in the country lies between 1000-1700 mm, with annual temperature ranges of between 19-31°C [Hassan and Tularam 2018]. There are occurrence of periodic climatic events such as seasonal flooding in the regions of the east and droughts in the south [Samba et al. 2008]. Majority of the population living in the rural areas heavily depends on agriculture and despite the visibly favorable climatic conditions in the DRC, the population is experiencing food insecurity situation as a result of the effects of climate change [Sonwa et al. 2012; Hassan and Tularam 2018; Dove et al. 2021], and efforts to reduce the poverty situation is very minimal due to the severity of the impacts posed by the climatic conditions [Hassan and Tularam 2018].

Rwanda is one of the East African countries with no connection to an ocean (i.e., landlocked) and covers an area of approximately 26,000 km² [Muhire et al. 2015] and having the highest population density in the SSA [World Bank 2017]. Due to the political stability that is being enjoyed in the country after the 1994 genocide incident, the country’s population has exponentially grown to approximately 13 million and the growth is anticipated to continue through 2050 [Republic of Rwanda 2011; World Bank 2022a]. Rwanda experiences a tropical climate that achieves a mean temperature of approximately 20 °C with an average annual rainfall of 1000 millimeter [Ndayisaba et al. 2017; Austin et al. 2020].

The economy of Rwanda depends intensively on agriculture which is extensively rain-fed, with more than 75% of the population relying on agricultural activities for their livelihood; agriculture also contributes to a third of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [Niyitanga et al. 2015; Austin et al. 2020].

Uganda is located within East Africa and is found within latitudes 1°30′S and 4°N and longitudes 29°30′ and 35°E [Nema 2006]. The country has a population of 46 million people [World Bank 2022a]. The country has a land coverage area of approximately 242,000 km² and experiences a diversified climate; and receives an average annual precipitation of 1000-1500 mm in most parts of the country [Obua et al. 2010].

Kenya lies within East Africa and has a population of 53 million people [World Bank 2022a] and an area coverage of 580,367 km². Kenya heavily depends on rainfall performance and distribution for her socio-economic activities [Huho et al. 2012], with over 60% of the activities being weather and climate dependent [Nicholson 2014]. Kenya’s economy is greatly driven by agricultural activities which constitutes about 25% to the real gross domestic product and provides the largest employment opportunity to the population as more than 70% of the population is employed or obtain their daily livelihood within the rural areas from agricultural activities which results to about 50% of the principal export earnings for the country [Kabubo-Mariara and Karanja 2007].

The climatic and ecological conditions of Kenya are very extreme traversing an altitude varying from sea level to over 5000 m in the highlands [Kabubo-Mariara and Karanja 2007]. The annual rainfall distribution in the country lies between 250 mm in the northern and eastern parts of Kenya also classified as arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) and 2500 mm in the highland and mountainous regions [Kabubo-Mariara and Karanja 2007].

WEF nexus studies in the Great Lakes Region of Africa

Few publications exist on the studies conducted relating to WEF nexus in the GLRA unlike research articles relating to Southern Africa region with South Africa dominating the studies undertaken. Different countries in GLRA have also conducted varied interrelations with regards to the nexus and thus difficult to connect the progress.

Study conducted in Rwanda by Johnson and Axelsson [2017] while investigating the role of hydropower for the country’s electrification plans revealed water insufficiency for the anticipated hydropower project plan as its expansion would lead to low water supply to cover the expected water demand in the country by 2026. Also the case study of Kenya explored similar trends observed in the SSA on the main factors contributing towards the deficiency of WEF like exponential population growth, extensive urbanization coupled with booming economy, and climate related vulnerabilities [Wakeford 2017; Okumu et al. 2021; Awandu et al. 2022a; Kanda et al. 2023].

Mukuve and Fenner [2015] case study of Uganda analyzed beyond the WEF by incorporating the soil nutrient nexus into the mix for better understanding of the nexus ability in tackling the food insecurity. Their study found out an existence of scarcity throughout the resources considered: water, energy, food and soil nutrients considering the food demand from source to service by incorporating the transformation of resources in the calorific demand analysis. The researchers encouraged the involvement of stakeholders in the process for legitimate and productive outcome.

Trigg and Tshimanga [2020] studied the Congo Basin and outlined its importance as an ecosystem that is not only very large but also having not been well understood by its uniqueness. The researchers pointed out that despite the basin’s potential of supporting millions of livelihoods, very little information of its ecosystem service is known. Similarly, Tshimanga and Hughes [2012] noted that due to the impacts of climate change in the basin which has resulted to rainfall seasonal changes and temperature distributions among others, the vulnerability of the population within the Congo Basin has negatively influenced the subsistence economy of the country.

Water security

The Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLRA) has an approximate area coverage of 850,000 km² surfaces of lakes, rivers and wetlands, which is approximately one-quarter of the earth’s area covered by the freshwater surface [Chimatiro et al. 2021]. GLRA water catchment is traversed with major lakes that flow freely through the region [Cowx and Ogutu-Owhayo 2019; Chimatiro et al. 2021], and having the largest diversified freshwater ecosystem rich in aquatic biodiversity [Darwall and Vie 2005]. Millions of people in this region derive their livelihood from this well pronounced and diversified ecosystem [Loiselle et al. 2014].

The total renewable water resources of the region is about 940 km³/year, out of which the surface renewable water accounts for about 83% of GLRA renewable resource (774.4 km³/year) and the rest represents the renewable ground water resources [FAO 2022].

Kenya’s land cover suffers from water stress occasioned by both physical and economic water scarcity and vast proportion of the land mass comprise of arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) [Ngigi 2002; Koech et al. 2020]. The irregular rainfall distribution both spatially and temporally has greatly accelerated the water stress situation in the country [Ahmed and Ndonye 2022]. The average precipitation in GLRA Is approximately 1200mm/ year, and the distribution ranges from 120 mm/year within Marsabit region in Kenya’s ASAL area to 1500 mm/year in Tshopo, DRC [Ashouri et al. 2015; FAO 2022].

The focus countries have a production water footprint of 5 billion m³/year of which agricultural activities contributes the most (46%) followed by Municipal water withdrawals (43%) then industrial usage at 11% [FAO 2022]. This production water footprint is more or less on a higher value when compared with the global freshwater withdrawal in similar sectors which amount to 53% (agriculture), 18% (industrial) and 29% (municipal) usage [Mahlknecht et al. 2020].

With the anticipated world population growth and higher proportion in the African countries, the countries within the GLRA as well as the greater Sub-Saharan Africa should brace for severe water stress situation resulting from additional demands and extreme pollution of the available water sources. Climate change impacts are expected to worsen the situation due to extreme drier conditions and severe variability in the hydrologic cycle [Bates et al. 2008]. Connor [2015]; UNICEF and WHO [2017] advocate for improved universal provision of drinking water and sanitation services through strengthening the water governance and holistic management of the water resources.

Energy security

Akom et al. [2020] and Boulle [2019] clarify that access to affordable and reliable energy results to an improved living standards of the households and enhanced socio-economic endeavors. Records found within the international organizations mandated with the energy accountability shows that the energy accessibility has improved globally in the recent years with economically stable countries achieving the 100% energy access by households [IEA et al. 2019; World Bank 2022a]. The scenario is different in the developing countries with more than 80% of the population still lack this basic commodity, with the highest proportion found within the Sub-Saharan Africa [IEA et al. 2019; World Bank 2022b]. Production and manufacturing industries and processes require intensive energy input with the industrial sectors representing 50% of the energy consumption. Innovative measures are paramount in the current energy situation to help lower the global temperature to 2 °C [IPCC 2007] as a potential pathways for society to achieve the Paris Agreement goals by striving to achieve the Net Zero Emission by 2050 [IEA 2021].

Generally power generation requires intensive water use through diversion of flow to create potential energy thereby abstracting water from the main water course and water consumption as a result of evaporation on the surfaces of the dam or during transportation [Falchetta et al. 2019]. Energy generation globally utilizes over 90% of the surface water [UNESCO 2014]. Sub-Saharan Africa is classified as hydropower-dependent continent as majority of the countries majorly rely on 50% of their total energy generation from hydropower and the region hosts close to 45% of the total population who depends entirely on hydropower grid connection [Falchetta et al. 2019]. Over-reliance on hydropower sources have a greater potential to power crisis due to prolonged droughts [IEA 2022a].

Kenya’s electricity generation consists of geothermal (44%), hydropower (33%) and diesel-powered (21%) energy sources [Boulle 2019]. The energy mix comprises of 68% biomass, 22% petroleum and 9% electricity [Tashtoush et al. 2019]. There is a greater potential of wind energy generation in Kenya and the exploration of its potential has accelerated in the recent past leading to the development of various wind farms in the country [Masyuko 2022]. Kazimierczuk [2019] review on the wind energy status and policy framework confirms a substantial development of wind power farms in Kenya with Lake Turkana Wind Power plant project being the largest with a potential of 310 MW. Other wind power farms include: Kipeto Wind power (100 MW), Isiolo Wind Power (100 MW), Meru (60 MW), Ngong (52 MW) and Baharini Wind Farm project in Lamu (90 MW).

Majority of the households in the rural Kenya mainly depends on charcoal and firewood for their energy supply [Awandu et al. 2022a], the trend that has led to an extensive deforestation in major parts of the country.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has a high potential of hydropower concentration located within the Grand Inga River with potential capacity of 44 GW sufficient to supply substantial power demand of the greater SSA region [Taliotis et al. 2014; Green et al. 2015]. Irrespective of the great potential of the Grand Inga River hydropower project and the existing hydropower sources, a greater population in the DRC still depend heavily on wood fuel especially in the rural areas as their main energy source, severely contributing to the detrimental impacts such as deforestation contributing to severe  environmental degradation [Kusakana 2016]. The energy consumption in DRC is highest in the residential sector for household uses like cooking and lighting corresponding to 77% of the total energy. The industrial sector comes second with a consumption share of about 20% [Kusakana 2016].

Rwanda has in the recent past experienced energy crisis emanating majorly from insufficient investment in energy sector. The ongoing urban industrialization has pushed the energy demands such that the existing energy resources have become insufficient, costly and affected by instability [Safari 2010]. There are massive untapped renewable energy sources in the country such as wind, methane gas, biomass, solar and geothermal which are under exploitation [Lujara and Kaunde 2007; Munyaneza et al. 2016]. All that notwithstanding, the country’s electric power generation capacity is considered lower than her potential and the access level is also limited [Munyaneza et al. 2016; Okumu et al. 2021].

With the creation of Electrogaz in 1976, the publicly owned company in Rwanda serves only 4.3% of the entire population with accessibility available to only 23% in urban areas and 1% in the rural areas. The energy consumption in Rwanda is about 30kWh/year/inhabitant. This constitutes the use of wood fuel which is approximated to constitute 80% of the total energy consumption. Close to 20% of the total population of Rwanda depends on wood energy for lighting and 99% as source of cooking fuel [Safari 2010].

There is dire need of sourcing alternative renewable energy sources, which is currently the nation’s top most agenda. The commissioning of the micro hydropower development with a potential capacity of 6.4 MW is a clear indicator of the country’s commitment to reduction of rural energy poverty [Safari 2010].

Uganda energy source is mainly derived from hydropower which accounts for 90% of the energy-mix. However, the energy utilization among the population is comprised of 95 % of biomass-based energy sources – wood, charcoal and agricultural residues [Adeyemi and Asere 2014]. This over-reliance on biomass energy sources has greatly contributed to the declining forest cover in the country and hastening the rate of desertification in the dry lands of Uganda [Byakola 2007].

Uganda’s per capita electricity consumption is 72 kWh/year/inhabitant and this is due to high energy tariffs compared to the neighbouring countries [Byakola 2007]. Wind, solar and geothermal energy are underdeveloped, with the energy policies in place geared towards the use of modern, clean and energy efficient technologies [Adeyemi and Asere 2014]. The country’s vision 2040 approximates the achievement of 12,700 MW of energy from their available renewable sources [Republic of Uganda 2013].

Due to the high costs of traditional fuel sources in use, energy insecurity together with the need to combat the greenhouse gas emissions due to over-reliance on fossil fuels, the GLRA just like the greater SSA has had paradigm expansion of heavily relying on construction of new dams even though there exists other cost-effective pathways of utilizing the existing large and cheap untapped hydropower potentials [Wu et al. 2017]. However, this paradigm shift need further assessment to enable the creation of alternative pathways that would utilize the alternative energy sources available having a potential to cover close to 866 TWh electricity demand for the vision 2030 [Barasa et al. 2018].

The adoption of micro and pico hydropower technologies that utilizes the kinetic energy of the flowing rivers [Güney and Kaygusuz 2010] having minimal to no changes to the riverine regime could be adopted for off-grid rural electrification [Vermaak et al. 2014; Awandu et al. 2022b]. Such technologies are compact, reliable, cost-effective and portable and do not require major civil engineering works on the river courses, thereby causing no potential harm to the river ecosystems [Yah et al. 2017]. The technology can be used in hilly areas where the development of conventional hydropower plants might not be feasible [Johnson and Pride 2010].

Figure 2 below summarizes the GLRA total energy supply and their sources. It is evident from the figure that the larger population heavily rely on biofuels as energy supply.

Figure 2. Energy supply sources by the year 2020, data inferred from [IEA 2022b].

Food security

Food security is a measure of the accessibility, availability and quality provision of safe food for consumption by the population [Bernard 2018; Awandu et al. 2022a; Kanda et al. 2023]. The food security status is attained when the population is capable of consuming sufficient safe and nutritious food for active and healthy living [Nkiaka et al. 2021]. Each state has the sole responsibility of ensuring provision of affordable and nutritious food to the citizenry and to ensure national food security for a healthy country and population [FAO 2023b].

Sub-Saharan Africa is generally food insecure with close to 300 million people living with severe food insecurity [Roser and Ritchie 2019]. An analysis of GLRA reveals that DRC severely suffers the food insecurity with 33 million people, Kenya (14 million) and Uganda (10 million) having access to one meal a day or none at all when no food aid is provided, while data is lacking for the Rwandan situation [FAO 2023a].

Cereals comprise of the most produced crops in the continent of Africa with great variations being observed across the different African countries, with corn, wheat and rice as the main crops doubling as the staple food in most countries [Saleh 2023]. GLRA experiences very low crop yields which has a negative influence on the food security in the region. For instance, Uganda has a crop yield of 2.24 t/ha followed by Kenya (1.81 t/ha), Rwanda (1.46 t/ha) then DRC (0.86 t/ha) [FAO 2021], a scenario that has led to malnutrition in the region as much of the population has no access to sufficient food [Roser and Ritchie 2019].

Agricultural production commands a bigger share in contributing towards the balance of payments for African economies [Giller 2020; OECD 2023]. The agricultural practice is mainly rainfed and therefore susceptible to the adverse effects of climatic conditions [Hjelm et al. 2015]. The availability of water both of good quality and sufficient quantity is critical in agriculture and consequently impacting on the food security [Awandu et al. 2022a].

The access to food supply in DRC is attributed to the militia conflicts in the region on the local institutions and governance. Due to the constant attacks by the militia group in the Congo forest, there is a general lack of security that prohibits agricultural food production [Alinovi et al. 2007].

Kenya’s agricultural production and crop yield severely suffered from drought and extreme dryness that has affected the country for the last three years causing acute shortage of food and water in the country [Ahmed and Ndonye 2022]. Pastoralists are the hard hit with the severe drought as they suffer extreme hunger and loss of lives and animals for three years in a row.