An analysis of the possibilities and challenges of long stay tourism in Thailand

2.1 The purpose of tourism and long-term accommodation

The 1992 Earth Summit in Brazil, which gave rise to the present worldwide emphasis on sustainable development, has acted as a driving force for the growth of tourism in three important areas. Protecting the natural resources and the environment is essential, followed by the need to continuously research the tourist industry, and finally, the need to develop human resources. All of these important factors have driven alternative tourism development to meet not only the recognized demands, but also to replace current tourism growth. Long-stay tourism is seen as an example of alternative tourism since it emphasizes language acquisition and intercultural interactions between visitors, who are viewed as guests, and locals, who are viewed as hosts. Because lodging is one of the three fundamental components of tourism—the other two being transportation and service—the tourist sector is related to real estate acquisition. The shared traits of the notion of a second home, which is based on two primary components, may explain long-stay tourism. Tourists may stay in privately operated, leased, or even free accommodations in this category. Second, they regularly go back to the same vacation spot. Their returns show that they are extremely knowledgeable of, devoted to, and appreciative of the location. To attract and keep visitors, tourism service information must be current, accurate, and easily accessible via a variety of digital mediums.⁸ As illustrated in Figure 3, Hall has offered three categories of tourism.⁸ Every visit, however, has the potential to serve many purposes and to straddle multiple categories, as in the case of a tourist who spends their winter vacation at their second home in a warmer country due to forced temporary migration (factors not related to tourism, academic and job opportunities).⁹ Accommodations that enable Muslim visitors to do the five necessary morning prayers, that must be done at specified times of day (before dawn, in the afternoon, in the afternoon, at sunset, and at night), are a much-appreciated addition to urban landscapes. With many prayer times spread out throughout the day, it's helpful for Muslim travelers to have a clean, well-maintained place to worship before continuing with their day.¹⁰

Figure 3. Academic and popular perceptions of tourism.

One month or more is regarded as a period of lengthy residence.¹¹ Due to this circumstance, senior or pensioner travelers have emerged as one of the major target demographics for long-term travel. They are finished with their family caring duties and have no further work obligations.¹² Additionally, they get regular income from pension funds granted by their government, including elderly visitors from Japan, the United States (US), and Europe. In a nutshell, the following are some elements that favor its development:

The European Union is the second-largest market, with US visitors accounting for the largest portion of second-home tourism.¹³ There is a rise in demand for such residences in southern European nations, and northern Europeans frequently acquire them.¹⁴ One of the frequent customs in the area, like Scandinavian nations, is the ownership of second homes that are essentially household spaces. However, due to frequent travel in some nations, buying second houses or vacation homes overseas has grown in popularity. Spain is a favorite destination for tourists planning extended stays because of its proximity to the Mediterranean Sea, its cultural diversity, and its continued European character.¹⁵ At the same time, South American and Central American vacation spots like Costa Rica, Panama, and Brazil are prioritized by travelers from the US. More marketplaces exist now outside of western nations. The primary driver of the initial demand was the need for improved climatic conditions. Transferring to Asian nations, particularly Southeast Asian nations like Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, is a significant development area for this industry.¹⁶

The second-home vacation sector is dominated by travelers from the US, with visitors from the European Union making up the second-smallest marketplace. The demand certainly rises in the nations of southern Europe, while northern Europeans are the most common buyers of such properties (Pedro, 2006). One of the things that people in the region like Scandinavian nations have in common is the culture of having a second house that is mostly in the domestic area. On the other hand, because of the frequent travel required in some nations, purchasing a vacation or second home in other countries has become an increasingly common practice. Spain is frequently cited as one of the best places in the world for extended vacations due to the country's proximity to the Mediterranean Sea, its diversity of cultural traditions, and its preservation of a European ambiance. At the same time, travelers from the US tend to prioritize locations in South and Central America, such as Brazil, Costa Rica, and Panama. In today's world, there are a growing number of marketplaces that are located outside of western nations. The primary impetus behind initial demand was consumers' desire to experience more favorable weather conditions.¹⁴ The relocation of operations to Asian nations, particularly those in Southeast Asia like Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, is one of the most significant drivers of growth in this industry.

2.2 The impact of demographic changes and long-stay accommodation

After the homecoming of American soldiers from World War II, the term “Baby Boomer” was first used to describe Americans born between 1946 and 1964. Despite efforts to contain the COVID-19 epidemic by limits on international travel, these restrictions cannot be seen as viable long-term answers to the situation. When people are unable to freely explore a country, it can have devastating effects on the economy, including a deepening recession and a drop in tourism revenue in Thailand.¹⁷ The U.S. birth rate skyrocketed during that period, and they today make up an age range between 42 and 65 years. The word has been used widely since then to refer to those who were born during that period worldwide, not only in the US. While they are currently experiencing relatively slow demographic development, Europe and Japan will certainly experience some population loss in the first part of the twenty-first century. According to the United Nations, an estimated world population of up to 2300 was estimated, despite not being carried out by the primary area or specific nations. Except for Northern America, almost all areas predicted decreased growth rates. It is believed that the average lifespan will continue to increase indefinitely. Population aging emerges as a key demographic trait outside of the demographic window. Thus, it could cause international migration. While some seniors look for retirement destinations to maintain their pensions, the influx of foreign workforces will address the population and new generational decline.¹⁸ Analyzing the recent growth of Thailand's golf tourism sector reveals a market shift in the direction of focusing on improving the tourist industry's management mechanisms and expanding its use of environmentally friendly practices. Golf tourism in Thailand has been around longer than in China, and its development method and talents are more refined.¹⁴ There are several ways in which tourism affects the economies of host countries, including the creation of jobs, the building of infrastructure, the expansion of the tourism-related value chain, and other societal and economic ripples across the local population.¹⁹

Based on research conducted by the Population Division, DESA, and the United Nations.¹⁷ The Japanese are a clear example of the rising elderly population. The government has a program to relocate most elderly pensioners to locations that are suited for them to live out their remaining years with a fixed amount of pension. They willfully purchase products and services that support independent living. Their worries about aging and death have sparked the creation of novel goods and services. The creation of specialized goods and services in the fields of health and medical care, home care, real estate, construction, financial services, education and learning, cuisine, cosmetics, travel, and entertainment are all part of the silver market. Most of the real estate and personal financial assets are owned by seniors, and when these assets are passed down through inheritance, there will be a greater need for new financial management services that include more investment than saving and making use of personal financial assets. Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines are three popular travel destinations. Given that Japan is a sizable trading partner and a popular tourist destination, it seems to sense that some of them would choose Thailand as their retirement residence. Currently, a bilateral company oversees other Japanese retirement complexes, and some Japanese families also maintain their private residences for both short-term accommodation and retired living.

2.3 Ownership of long-stay accommodation

The real estate sector, like many other economic sectors, is an essential component and the foundation of the tourism business. In terms of use patterns, the lines between real estate and tourism are becoming blurred. For instance, hotels operate as both long-term dwellings and workplaces for a mobile workforce of businesspeople, and resort areas provide both residential and recreational facilities to a frequently global populace. The hotel sector is a major topic of empirical examination of the globalization of tourism, particularly the real estate implications. Figure 4 represents the analogy of a timeline of the duration of stay.

Figure 4. Analogy of a timeline of the duration of stay.

3.1 Thai long-stay market for real estate

Four distinct market categories have been singled out by the TAT as possible long-stay travelers visiting Thailand. The four groups of long-term visitors are as follows:

As a result, there are four kinds of long-stay accommodation in Thailand:

3.2 Market analysis

3.2.1 Market overview for retail

The retail sector in Thailand may be divided into seven major groups based on size, characteristics, products sold, and price, according to a Colliers Thailand analysis.²³ After the fourth quarter of 2004, the Bangkok retail market declined. It then rose in 2007, before sharply declining in response to the most recent financial crisis and the protests in 2008–2010. Despite reduced interest rates, the household continued to save due to anxiety over expenditures. Due to planned enhancement, the new future supplies are anticipated to be more fiercely competitive.²⁴ The outdated malls are undergoing renovations or refurbishing to maintain their client base, which would likely cause a decline in occupancy throughout these changes. Figure 6 depicts the Thailand retail sales index. Bangkok's overall retail supply increased to 5.46 million m², up 0.7% quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q) and 1.5% year over year (Y-o-Y).²⁵ Nevertheless, a rise in customer confidence was accompanied by higher rental rates of 92% (4.97 million m²) accounting for 0.3% Q-o-Q but was still a drop of 1.5 % Y-o-Y. The following figures demonstrate as previously stated. Figure 7 indicates the demand for occupancy by region.

Figure 6. Thailand retail sales index.

Figure 7. Demand for occupancy by region.

3.2.2 Demand analysis

Material obtained from the latest statistics is updated using estimates, while forecasts try to gauge potential changes. Increases in population and employment, facility relocations, speculative demand, and other factors are a few examples of demand drivers. A demand estimate for long-term housing is correlated with the number of visitors and retirees, just like in the tourism sector. A forecast will produce a projection using the number of tourists and demographic changes. The number of long-stay visitors is tracked by the arrival and departure stamps, but it is unclear how many long-stay lodgings there are because some properties are unwittingly acquired as private assets. Real estate items that developers had initially released for their locals but later became well-known in the tourism sector started to be purchased by tourists.²⁶ International visitors and investors have undoubtedly been provided with local coastline and island tourism projects during the previous ten years. Since Thai owners are included in the total, it does not, however, provide an accurate indication of the level of demand from international buyers.

3.2.3 Supply analysis

According to TAT's four categories of long-term accommodations, most real estate items for sale fall into the “hotel and resort” and “condominium and service apartment” categories.²⁷

3.2.3.1 Resort and hotels

In conclusion, the amount of tourist lodging in this category is based on the “number of lodging places for tourists,” which adds up to four different types of lodging: hotel, resort, guesthouse, and bungalow. The following are succinct summaries of these four types:

Figure 8 represents the number of places available for tourist lodging from 2016 to 2020. We assess the BKK (BKK is IATA airport code for Bangkok) and vicinities, central, northern, eastern, northeastern, and southern. Figure 9 indicates the permits for high-rise residences, indicating the number of structures from 2016 to 2020.²⁸

Figure 8. Number of places available for tourist lodging from 2016 to 2020.

Figure 9. Permits for high-rise residences, indicating the number of structures from 2016 to 2020.