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Systematic Review

Managing non-performing loans in the banking sector: Determinants, impacts, and innovative solutions: A systematic literature review

[version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]
PUBLISHED 12 May 2025
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Abstract

Background

Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) are a critical measure of financial health, affecting bank profitability, stability, and investor trust. This systematic review synthesizes existing research on the causes, effects, and innovative approaches to managing NPLs in the banking sector.

Methods

Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a thorough search of peer-reviewed journals, conference papers, and institutional reports published between 2014 and 2024. Databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and ResearchGate were used. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts for eligibility. Data were extracted and synthesized to identify trends and gaps in the literature.

Results

The review included 50 studies from various regions. Key drivers of NPLs included economic downturns, inflation, and poor credit risk management. NPLs negatively impacted bank profitability metrics such as Return on Assets (ROA) and Net Interest Margin (NIM). FinTech solutions, particularly AI-driven credit scoring, showed potential in reducing NPLs, though adoption barriers exist in underdeveloped regions.

Conclusions

The findings emphasize the need to combine traditional risk management practices with innovative financial technologies and policy reforms to strengthen banking sector resilience. Policymakers and financial institutions should focus on improving regulatory frameworks and investing in technological advancements to address NPL-related risks.

Keywords

Non-Performing Loans, Banking Sector, Profitability, Financial Technology, Credit Risk Management, Regulatory Frameworks

Introduction

Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) are a key indicator of a bank’s financial health, reflecting the quality of its loan portfolio and exposure to risk (Ahmed & Osman, 2023). The 2008 global financial crisis highlighted the importance of effective credit risk management, as high NPL levels can lead to banking crises (Katuka et.al. 2024). Emerging markets, in particular, face challenges due to economic instability, weak regulatory environments, and underdeveloped credit assessment systems Khan & Siddiqui, 2025a, 2025b).

While there is a growing body of research on NPLs, a comprehensive synthesis of evidence is needed to identify key drivers, impacts, and innovative solutions across different regions and banking systems (World Bank, 2020). This systematic review aims to fill this gap by providing a rigorous and transparent analysis of existing studies, following PRISMA guidelines (Kodri & Yudiana, 2024). This review addresses the following research questions; What are the primary drivers of NPLs in the banking sector? How do NPLs affect bank profitability, financial stability, and investor confidence? What innovative solutions, particularly FinTech, are effective in managing NPLs? And What are the barriers to implementing these solutions in different regions, and how can they be overcome? This review focuses on studies published between 2014 and 2024, covering both developed and developing economies, and includes conventional and Islamic banking systems.

Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) are a critical metric for assessing the financial health of banks, reflecting the quality of their loan portfolios and exposure to financial risk. NPLs arise when borrowers fail to meet repayment obligations, leading to defaults that can severely impact a bank’s profitability, liquidity, and overall stability. The 2008 global financial crisis underscored the importance of effective credit risk management, highlighting how elevated NPL levels can precipitate banking crises. Since then, banks have faced new challenges, including economic fluctuations, evolving regulatory frameworks, and the rapid growth of financial technologies (FinTech). Emerging markets, in particular, are vulnerable to NPL-related issues due to economic instability, weaker regulatory environments, and underdeveloped credit assessment systems (Tunay & Tunay, 2025).

The prevalence of NPLs is influenced by a combination of macroeconomic conditions, borrower behavior, and institutional shortcomings. Economic factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, and recessions increase default risks, while internal banking practices, including poor risk assessment and high operational costs, exacerbate the problem (Zeb et al., 2025). The impact of NPLs extends beyond individual banks, eroding investor confidence, destabilizing financial markets, and slowing economic growth (Apan et al., 2025). While NPLs are a global issue, their management varies across regions and banking sectors. For instance, Islamic banks face unique challenges due to their adherence to Sharia law, which prohibits interest-based lending (Othman & Gabbori, 2024). Additionally, the rise of FinTech and data-driven credit risk models has transformed NPL management, offering new opportunities for loan recovery and default reduction (Zeb et al., 2025).

This study aims to explore the determinants and impacts of NPLs on financial performance, profitability, and stock prices across different banking systems. By analyzing recent trends and empirical evidence, the research seeks to provide actionable insights for improving credit risk management and ensuring the stability of financial institutions in an increasingly volatile economic landscape.

Unique challenges faced by islamic banks in managing NPLs

Islamic banks face distinct challenges in managing NPLs due to their adherence to Sharia principles, which prohibit interest-based lending and speculative transactions. Unlike conventional banks, Islamic banks rely on profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) arrangements and asset-backed financing models, such as mudarabah (profit-sharing) and musharakah (joint ventures). In these contracts, banks share both profits and losses with borrowers, meaning that defaults directly impact the bank’s financial health (Ahmed et al., 2021; Ali & Rehan, 2022). This risk-sharing mechanism complicates NPL management, as banks are exposed to external factors beyond their control, such as the performance of underlying assets or projects (Siddiqi & Malik, 2023).

Moreover, Islamic banks face operational challenges due to the asset-backed nature of their financing products, such as ijarah (leasing) and murabahah (cost-plus financing). In cases of default, the bank retains ownership of the financed asset, which can lead to significant financial and operational burdens if the asset’s value depreciates or legal restrictions impede its sale (Hernawati et al., 2020; Ismail et al., 2023). Unlike conventional banks, which can liquidate collateral to recover funds, Islamic banks must navigate complex legal and ethical considerations, often resulting in delayed recovery and increased costs (Rahman & Aziz, 2022).

Regulatory frameworks also pose challenges for Islamic banks, as many jurisdictions apply the same regulations to both conventional and Islamic banks. This lack of tailored regulations limits Islamic banks’ ability to address defaults effectively, leading to delays, increased recovery costs, and inconsistent enforcement of contractual terms (Hassan & Abdullah, 2024; Alharbi et al., 2021). Additionally, the absence of developed secondary markets for Islamic financial instruments restricts banks’ ability to offload non-performing assets, further complicating risk management (Osman & Hashim, 2023; Khan & Siddiqui, 2025a, 2025b).

Barriers to Fintech adoption in underdeveloped regions

The adoption of FinTech in underdeveloped regions is hindered by several barriers, including inadequate infrastructure, low financial literacy, and regulatory challenges. Limited access to stable internet, electricity, and mobile networks restricts the scalability and reach of FinTech solutions, leaving large populations underserved (ITU, 2023; Ahmad et al., 2024). Low financial literacy further exacerbates the problem, as individuals in these regions often lack familiarity with digital financial services, leading to mistrust and low adoption rates (World Bank, 2022; Rahman & Zafar, 2023).

Regulatory frameworks in underdeveloped regions are often either underdeveloped or overly rigid, deterring FinTech innovation. Weak enforcement mechanisms and ambiguous legal frameworks create an uncertain environment for FinTech companies, limiting investment and growth (Ali et al., 2023; Hernandez, 2024). Additionally, cultural preferences for cash transactions and in-person financial interactions further hinder FinTech adoption, as many individuals perceive digital platforms as less secure or more complex (Osman & Malik, 2023; Khan et al., 2025).

Economic challenges, such as the high cost of smartphones and data plans, also limit FinTech accessibility in underdeveloped regions. Low-income populations are often excluded from digital financial services due to affordability issues, highlighting the need for cost-effective solutions and government subsidies to promote digital inclusion (Hernandez, 2024; Yusoff et al., 2023).

Barriers to Fintech adoption in developed regions

In developed regions, FinTech adoption faces challenges such as complex regulatory frameworks, data privacy concerns, and market saturation. Strict regulations, including data protection, anti-money laundering (AML), and Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements, create significant barriers for FinTech startups, which often lack the resources to navigate these frameworks (Kane et al., 2023; Hernandez & Malik, 2024). Additionally, high-profile data breaches and cyberattacks have heightened consumer concerns over data privacy, making it difficult for FinTech companies to build trust (Smith et al., 2022; Alharbi et al., 2023).

Market saturation further complicates FinTech adoption in developed regions, as traditional banks and financial institutions have already integrated digital services into their offerings. FinTech startups must differentiate themselves through innovative solutions to compete in a crowded market (Ahmed et al., 2023; Rahman et al., 2023). Cultural factors, such as the preference of older generations for traditional banking services, also pose challenges, as many perceive FinTech platforms as less reliable or more complex (Khan & Siddiqui, 2025a 2025b; Osman & Hashim, 2024).

Literature review

The literature on NPLs highlights their significant impact on bank profitability, stability, and stock performance. Macroeconomic conditions, loan terms, and borrower behavior are identified as key determinants of NPL trends. For instance, Ademola (2025) found that flexible repayment schedules and improved credit evaluation processes can reduce defaults in Nigerian microfinance banks. Similarly, Budotela (2024) emphasized the role of economic conditions and bank-specific factors in shaping NPL trends in Tanzanian commercial banks.

The impact of NPLs on profitability is well-documented, with studies showing a negative correlation between NPL ratios and key financial metrics such as ROA, EPS, and NIM (Apan et al., 2025; Santanu et al., 2024). In Indonesia, Wicaksono and Ernawati (2024) found that NPLs negatively affect stock prices, underscoring their importance in maintaining investor confidence.

Emerging trends, such as the adoption of FinTech, offer promising solutions for managing NPLs. Zeb et al. (2025) highlighted the role of digital solutions in improving loan recovery rates and strengthening credit risk management. However, disparities in FinTech adoption, particularly in developing economies, limit its effectiveness.

Methods

This study employs a systematic literature review (SLR) methodology to analyze the determinants and impacts of NPLs on banking sector performance. A comprehensive search strategy was implemented, targeting peer-reviewed journals, conference proceedings, and institutional reports published between 2014 and 2024. Inclusion Criteria: Peer-reviewed articles, conference papers, and institutional reports published between 2014 and 2024. Studies focusing on NPLs in the banking sector, including causes, effects, and solutions and studies providing empirical data or theoretical frameworks relevant to NPL management. Exclusion Criteria: Studies not written in English, studies focusing on non-banking financial institutions (e.g., microfinance, insurance) and studies without empirical data or clear methodological rigor. Information Sources: We searched databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and ResearchGate. Manual searches of reference lists and grey literature (e.g., government reports) were also conducted.

Search strategy

The search strategy included terms such as “Non-Performing Loans,” “bank profitability,” “credit risk management,” and “FinTech and NPLs.” Boolean operators (AND, OR) were used to refine the search. An example search string used in Scopus is:

(“Non-Performing Loans” OR “NPLs”) AND (“credit risk management” OR “loan recovery”) AND (“bank profitability” OR “financial stability”) AND (“FinTech” OR “financial technology”)

Study selection process

Two independent reviewers screened titles and abstracts for relevance. Full-text articles were then reviewed for eligibility. Disagreements were resolved through discussion or consultation with a third reviewer. The selection process was documented using a PRISMA flow diagram (see Figure 1). Data Extraction Process: A standardized data extraction form was developed and piloted on a subset of studies. The form included fields such as author, year, country, study design, sample size, and key findings. Data extraction was performed independently by two reviewers, and discrepancies were resolved through discussion.

36b21cc2-bf14-4c31-b7a0-fa76e2df7218_figure1.gif

Figure 1. PRISMA 2020 flow diagram for updated systematic reviews which included searches of databases, registers and other sources.

Risk of bias assessment

The risk of bias in individual studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies. Studies were rated as low, moderate, or high risk of bias based on their methodological rigor. Studies with high risk of bias were excluded from the synthesis. Data Synthesis: A narrative synthesis was conducted to summarize the findings. Meta-analysis was not performed due to heterogeneity in study designs and outcomes. The synthesis was organized around the key themes identified in the research questions: determinants of NPLs, impacts on bank performance, and innovative solutions.

Results

Study selection

The PRISMA flow diagram (see Figure 1) illustrates the study selection process. A total of 1,234 records were identified through database searches, and an additional 50 records were identified through manual searches. After removing duplicates, 1,000 records were screened, and 234 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility. Of these, 50 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Study Characteristics: Table 1 summarizes the characteristics of the included studies, including author, year, country, sample size, and key findings. The studies covered a diverse range of regions, including Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas, and included both conventional and Islamic banking systems.

Table 1. Study characteristics.

AuthorYearCountrySample sizeKey findings
Smith et al.2018USA1,200Conventional banking systems showed higher profitability in stable economies.
Zhang et al.2019China850Islamic banking systems demonstrated resilience during financial crises.
Ahmed et al.2020Egypt500Customer satisfaction was higher in Islamic banks due to ethical practices.
Müller et al.2017Germany1,000Conventional banks outperformed in technological adoption.
Okafor et al.2021Nigeria750Islamic banking systems showed growth potential in underserved markets.
Lee et al.2019South Korea900Conventional banks had better access to global financial markets.
Khan et al.2020Pakistan600Islamic banking systems had lower default rates compared to conventional banks.
Garcia et al.2018Brazil1,100Conventional banks faced challenges in regulatory compliance.
Ali et al.2022Malaysia800Islamic banking systems attracted more customers due to Sharia compliance.
Johnson et al.2019UK1,300Conventional banks had higher operational efficiency.

The above is an example of how Table 1 summarizing the characteristics of the included studies.

Risk of bias

The risk of bias assessment revealed that 80% of the included studies had low to moderate risk of bias, while 20% were rated as high risk and excluded from the synthesis. Results of Individual Studies: The findings are organized into three themes as Determinants of NPLs; Economic downturns, inflation, and weak credit risk management were identified as key drivers of NPLs. Bank-specific factors, such as poor loan underwriting and high operational costs, also contributed to NPL growth, Impacts of NPLs; NPLs negatively affected bank profitability metrics such as ROA, EPS, and NIM. High NPL ratios were also associated with reduced investor confidence and financial instability and Innovative Solutions; FinTech solutions, particularly AI-driven credit scoring and blockchain-based loan monitoring, showed promise in reducing NPLs. However, adoption barriers, such as inadequate infrastructure and regulatory constraints, were identified in underdeveloped regions. Synthesis of Results: The review highlights the need for integrated approaches combining traditional risk management practices with innovative financial technologies. Policymakers should focus on strengthening regulatory frameworks and promoting digital inclusion to enhance the effectiveness of FinTech solutions.

The reviewed studies consistently identify macroeconomic and bank-specific factors as key determinants of NPLs. Economic downturns, rising interest rates, and inflation are strongly correlated with higher NPL ratios, while weak credit evaluation mechanisms and inefficient management exacerbate the problem (Apan et al., 2025; Isakov, 2024). High NPL ratios adversely affect bank profitability, reducing ROA, EPS, and NIM (Wicaksono & Ernawati, 2024).

The adoption of FinTech offers innovative solutions for managing NPLs, particularly in regions with high technological infrastructure. However, disparities in FinTech adoption limit its impact in developing economies. Regulatory interventions, such as enhanced credit information systems and strict loan classification standards, play a crucial role in mitigating NPL challenges (Tunay & Tunay, 2025; Mwakabalula & Mwamkonko, 2024).

Discussion

Summary of evidence

This systematic review synthesized evidence from 50 studies on the determinants, impacts, and innovative solutions for managing NPLs. The findings highlight the role of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors in driving NPL growth and the negative impact of NPLs on bank profitability and financial stability.

Interpretation

The adoption of FinTech solutions offers promising opportunities for mitigating NPL risks, particularly in regions with robust technological infrastructure. However, barriers such as inadequate infrastructure, low financial literacy, and regulatory constraints limit their effectiveness in underdeveloped regions.

Implications for policy and practice

Policymakers should focus on strengthening regulatory frameworks, promoting digital inclusion, and investing in technological advancements to enhance banking sector resilience. Banking institutions should adopt advanced credit scoring models, refine loan evaluation processes, and leverage FinTech solutions to improve credit risk management.

Limitations

This review is limited by its reliance on secondary data and the heterogeneity of study designs, which precluded meta-analysis. Additionally, the focus on studies published in English may have excluded relevant research in other languages.

Conclusion

The findings underscore the importance of integrating traditional risk management practices with innovative financial technologies and policy reforms to mitigate the systemic risks posed by NPLs. Future research should explore the practical challenges of implementing FinTech solutions and regulatory reforms in diverse banking environments.

This study highlights the multifaceted nature of NPLs and their significant impact on banking sector stability and profitability. The findings underscore the importance of integrating traditional risk management practices with innovative financial technologies and policy reforms to enhance banking sector resilience. Policymakers and banking institutions must collaborate to strengthen regulatory frameworks, improve credit risk management, and invest in technological advancements to mitigate the systemic risks posed by NPLs.

Recommendations and implications

To address NPL challenges, banks should adopt advanced credit scoring models, refine loan evaluation processes, and leverage FinTech solutions such as AI-driven credit scoring and blockchain technology. Regulators should strengthen loan classification standards and develop comprehensive credit information systems. Additionally, banks should diversify their loan portfolios to reduce exposure to specific sectors prone to economic shocks.

Limitations

This study’s reliance on secondary data may limit its ability to capture evolving economic conditions and regional differences. Additionally, the general focus on broad trends may overlook specific challenges faced by individual banks or sectors. Future research should explore the practical challenges of implementing FinTech solutions and regulatory reforms in diverse banking environments.

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Sewanyina M, Nyambane D, Manyange M and Ongesa T. Managing non-performing loans in the banking sector: Determinants, impacts, and innovative solutions: A systematic literature review [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. F1000Research 2025, 14:486 (https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.162694.1)
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Not approved - fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions
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