The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action

2.1 Theoretical literature review

2.1.1 Causes of human trafficking

Human trafficking can be internal or international and is composed of three elements: recruitment, transport, and transfer of persons; means of trafficking such as threats, abduction, and fraud; and purposes including cheap labor, sexual exploitation, and slavery. This illegal activity generates billions of dollars in profit and affects millions of people worldwide, including women and children (Rahman, 2011).

Even though human trafficking is an illegal activity that is highly condemned by various international organizations, such as the Global Alliance against Trafficking in Women, the Global Initiative to Fight Human Trafficking, UNICEF, and the ILO, it continues to expand at an alarming rate. various “pull” and “push” factors might have contributed to it. Push factors include family problems, armed conflicts, political instability, dictatorial governments, poverty, and lack of employment. On the other hand, pull factors including the demand for better opportunities, improvement in quality of life, and a desire for change. Consequently, global labor regulation to decrease trafficking flows and related issues continues to be a topic of extensive discussion among scholars, and political and economic actors (Gezie et al., 2021). Human trafficking has significant socio-political and economic implications as it involves the exploitation of vulnerable individuals for profit (Duong, K. A., 2012). This exploitation impedes economic growth and can lead to a loss of agency for the victims (Wheaton et al., 2010). The phenomenon is complex, with various factors such as poverty, globalization, and cultural expectations contributing to its prevalence (Cameron, et al., 2023).

2.1.2 Is Human trafficking an organized crime?

Human trafficking, as defined by the United Nations, involves the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harboring, or receipt of people through force, fraud, or deception for the purpose of exploitation. This practice, which has existed for centuries, remains a significant modern-day problem. It affects men, women, boys, and girls who are forced into labor, sex, marriage, and organ donation against their will (Bigio, J., & Vogelstein, R. B., 2021). Thus, human trafficking is regarded as one of the most lucrative criminal activities in the world.

The terms trafficking in persons, human trafficking, and modern slavery function as umbrella terms frequently utilized interchangeably to depict a crime wherein traffickers exploit and derive profit from both adults and children by coercing them to undertake labor or participate in commercial sexual activities (U.S. Department of State, 2022).

If an individual under 18 is engaged in a commercial sex act, it is considered a crime, irrespective of the presence of force, fraud, or coercion. The United States identifies two main types of human trafficking: sex trafficking and forced labor. (Bigio, J., & Vogelstein, R. B., 2021). Forced labor, which can also be known as labor trafficking, includes a variety of actions where one person utilizes force, deception, or coercion to exploit another person’s labor or services. When someone commits any of the outlined “acts” involving a child (under 18 years old), the means of such acts is irrelevant, regardless of whether there is evidence of force, fraud, or coercion. The law in the United States and many other nations forbids the exploitation of children in commercial sex activities.

The United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNCTOC) characterizes organized crime as a collaboration of three or more persons operating over time to commit serious crimes defined by the Convention, with the intent of obtaining financial or material gains, either directly or indirectly. In a similar vein, the European Union describes organized crime as a structured group comprising more than two individuals who work together over time to perpetrate offenses punishable by a minimum of four years of imprisonment or more severe penalties, regardless of whether these actions are primary crimes or methods to secure material benefits, and if relevant, to improperly influence public authorities.

Human trafficking involves high-profile individuals who have the power to inflict significant harm on the economy and society. Despite stringent laws and severe penalties criminalizing human trafficking, these individuals continue to exploit transnational networks for profit. For example, in Eastern Europe, traffickers exploit the region’s economic situation by misleading unemployed graduates into forced prostitution. Russia and Ukraine serve as transit locations for traffickers to transport their victims. Israel has been reported to use Russia as a transit location to prevent individuals from being trafficked from Egypt (Mossbarger, 2009). Prosecuting human traffickers in Russia and Ukraine is challenging, despite existing laws that prohibit human trafficking. The highly structured activities of criminal organizations persist over time, causing extensive economic, societal, psychological, and physical damage (Mossbarger, 2009). According to Hughes (2001), human trafficking is more profitable and involves less risk than trading in arms or drugs, generating an estimated $7 billion annually.

2.1.3 Human trafficking and political instability

Political instability is a major driving force behind human trafficking. Armed conflicts, wars, ethnic clashes, and weak or dictatorial governments are the primary factors contributing to both internal and international human trafficking. However, the relationship between political instability and human trafficking is not solely unidirectional.

Political instability in a country destabilizes every sector of the economy, forcing citizens to seek a better life elsewhere. This places them in a disadvantageous position, making them vulnerable to human trafficking. In some areas, political instability leads parents to expose their children to human trafficking by entrusting them to friends or relatives and, in some cases, even selling them, hoping they will have better lives in politically stable countries. The European Union Strategy towards the Eradication of Trafficking in Human Beings (2012–2016) recognizes political instability as one of the causes of human trafficking. In Africa, due to political instability, people often pass through Libya to reach Europe, where armed groups exploit vulnerable Africans fleeing their countries. These migrants often become victims of prostitution, torture, extortion, forced combat, and organ trafficking (Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, 2018). Article 9 of the Palermo Protocol emphasizes that to address human trafficking effectively, countries must identify and tackle the root causes that make people vulnerable to trafficking, incorporating economic, social, and political issues into their policy frameworks. Although many factors contribute to human trafficking, one of the primary root causes is political instability. Political instability places immense pressure on vulnerable populations, making them susceptible to human traffickers.

The contribution of political instability to economic downturns and human rights crises is well documented. For instance, Ong’ayo (2008) noted that political instability creates both human crises and economic debacles. The life-threatening political and economic conditions in Africa contribute significantly to internal displacement and human trafficking, often attributed to leadership problems. Additionally, Weatherburn et al. (2015) analyzed the socio-economic, political, and criminal factors affecting human trafficking through eight scenarios and concluded that internal or transnational displacement caused by political instability or armed conflict is a major political factor increasing vulnerability to human trafficking. Lastly, studies by Koser (2000) and Heller et al. (2016) examined the effects of asylum policies and economic freedom on human trafficking, respectively. Koser (2000) drew three conclusions. First, increasing numbers of asylum seekers are being forced to turn to traffickers to navigate restrictive asylum policies. Second, trafficking exposes asylum seekers, including some genuine refugees, to new forms of vulnerability. Third, the growing vulnerability is more attributable to asylum policies than to traffickers or asylum seekers themselves. Heller et al. (2016) found no association between economic freedom and human trafficking, suggesting that economically free countries are more effective in combating human trafficking activities.

2.1.4 ILO and statistical reports on human trafficking

Many migrant workers experience abuse, such as low wages, unsafe conditions, lack of social protection, and restrictions on their rights, including discrimination and xenophobia (Arowolo, 2021). The International Labor Organization (ILO), established in 1919, aims to promote social justice and improve working conditions (Kott, 2019). As the UN agency focused on labor rights, the ILO addresses human trafficking and smuggling issues (Kott, 2019).

According to the 2019 report on global trends in forced displacement, the number of people vulnerable to trafficking has increased in recent years. This rise is primarily attributed to the unprecedented increase in irregular migration and the number of displaced persons. These displacements are often caused by armed conflicts, ethnically based clashes, or terrorist organizations controlling territory in conflict zones. The UNODC (2009) report characterizes human trafficking as involving a range of activities including the sex trade, forced labor, organ trafficking, coerced child begging, early forced marriages, and participation in armed conflict. Currently, the human trafficking industry continues to flourish because of political unrest in many nations. As of the end of September 2023, around 114 million people globally were forcibly displaced as a result of persecution, conflict, violence, human rights abuses, or situations that significantly disrupted public order (UNHCR, 2023).

The International Labor Organization (ILO) report reveals that approximately 2.4 million individuals around the globe are subjected to forced labor. Furthermore, the U.S. Department of State’s 2022 report states that human trafficking—which includes both sex trafficking and forced labor—yields over $150 billion in illegal profits for traffickers and their associates. The majority of victims in this organized crime sector originate from the Asia-Pacific region, totaling 11.7 million, while the fewest are from developed economies and the EU, which record 1.5 million victims. Notably, profit distribution within this crime sector is substantial: the Asia-Pacific region generates a market value of $51.8 billion, while developed economies and the EU together account for $46.9 billion. The remaining segments of the organized crime market are distributed across Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, Central and South-Eastern Europe, and the CIS regions ( Figure 1).

Figure 1. Regional statistics on human trafficking.

UNODC (2021).

Note: The figure is adopted from UNODC (2021), Global Report on Trafficking in Persons.

The International Labor Organization (ILO) report on forced labor, modern slavery, and human trafficking revealed that approximately 2.4 million individuals are coerced into labor globally. Utilizing data from the ILO, along with certain manipulations, the U.S. Department of State report (2022) estimates that human trafficking—including both sex trafficking and forced labor—yields over $150 billion in illegal profits for traffickers and those who assist them. Most victims of this organized crime are from the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for 11.7 million victims. In contrast, developed economies and the EU report only 1.5 million victims. Nonetheless, the Asia-Pacific region generates substantial profits, with a market value of US$51.8 billion, while developed economies and the EU account for US$46.9 billion. The remaining organized crime market share is filled by four other regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, Central and South-Eastern Europe, and CIS ( Figure 2)

Figure 2. Statistics on number of human trafficking and profit.

Source: Integrity, G. F. (2017).

Note: The figure is adopted from Integrity, G. F. (2017), Illicit financial flows to and from developing countries: 2005-2014. Washington, DC.

Moreover, according to the US Department of State (2016), the civil unrest in Syria has made so many men, women, and children victims of sex trafficking, forced labor, and early marriages in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey. The International Justice Mission (2010) reported a rapid increase in sex trafficking, fueled by factors such as manipulation by family members and coerced prostitution. Furthermore, the UN report (2022) outlined the all-encompassing impact of human trafficking on victims’ lives. Every phase of trafficking can involve various forms of abuse: physical, sexual, and psychological violence, alongside deprivation, torture, forced drug use, economic exploitation, and poor working and living conditions. Additionally, statistics related to trafficked individuals and the income generated by traffickers fluctuate among different organizations.

But an enormous number of people are crossing boundaries and facing different exploitation tactics. For example, the International Organization for Migration estimates that approximately 600,000–2 million people are trafficked and seven billion dollars in income are generated per year. While the US state department estimates showed that 600,000–800,000 persons are trafficked, and from it, around 80% are women and children. The US state department’s trafficking in-person report (2011) also reveals that 70% are for the purpose of prostitution and other sexual exploitation.

Finally, Tyldum et al. (2005) explain why statistics on human trafficking victims differ across institutions, arguing that migration and exploitation are not mutually exclusive events. They highlight that some individuals may experience both migration and exploitation simultaneously, which complicates the task of counting victims. Additionally, the varying estimates of human trafficking victims reflect the different methods and criteria used by institutions to define and measure these overlapping experiences.

2.2 Empirical literature review

The study by Zhang and Pineda (2008) investigates how official corruption impacts the conversation surrounding human trafficking, proposing that corruption could be a more significant predictor of trafficking activities than other macro-level factors. This assertion goes against the prevalent view that human trafficking primarily stems from poverty and limited economic opportunities. Although financial incentives are undeniably a driving force that leads to the trafficking of women and children, the socio-cultural factors allowing the initial deception and ongoing enslavement of victims may be more closely related to government incompetence or corruption. To support the corruption hypothesis, the authors conducted field observations in the red-light district of Tijuana, Mexico. These observations, which are discussed elsewhere, strongly indicate that official corruption might actually sustain and promote the trafficking industry.

In a study conducted by Cho (2012), the push and pull factors of human trafficking were analyzed using a robust regression approach. He assessed the resilience of 63 pull and 70 push factors identified in previous literature. Through extreme bound analysis, he performed over two million regressions involving up to 153 countries from 1995 to 2010, exploring all potential variable combinations. The findings clearly indicated that crime significantly influences human trafficking rates in both origin and destination countries. Interestingly, the results challenge common perceptions, suggesting that low levels of gender equality might restrict the outflow of human trafficking victims. The research also indicates that the relationship between general migration and human trafficking is somewhat ambiguous; however, a specific type of globalization that enhances exposure to foreign contacts and information influences human trafficking. Furthermore, the quality of institutions in origin countries is more impactful than in destination countries.

Jiang and LaFree (2017) created a social disorganization approach to help understand human trafficking. They suggest that trade openness might be an important factor in this issue. Countries that are moving from high to low trade openness may have a harder time fighting human trafficking. This means trafficking could be more common in these countries.

Their study used data from the United Nations, which included information from 43 countries over 163 time points between 2003 and 2008. This data provided complete details on all relevant factors. The researchers first used a method called semi-parametric fixed effects regression to examine the relationship between trade openness and human trafficking.

Next, they applied random and fixed effects regression, along with negative binomial analysis, to investigate an inverted U-shaped relationship. Their findings confirmed this inverted U-shaped relationship, estimating the turning point at 1.995. They also performed two sensitivity analyses, using parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods, which validated their results. Using negative binomial and fixed effects negative binomial regressions, they further confirmed the inverted U-shaped relationship between trade openness and human trafficking counts.

At last, human trafficking is significantly influenced by governance indicators, such as voice and accountability, which reflect the extent to which citizens can participate in political processes and hold their governments accountable (Das et al., 2013; Movsisyan, S., 2018). High levels of accountability can lead to better enforcement of laws against trafficking and greater protection for vulnerable populations. Additionally, demographic variables like population growth rate can exacerbate vulnerabilities, as rapid growth may strain resources and increase competition for jobs, making individuals more susceptible to exploitation (Onuoha, B., 2011). Macroeconomic variables such as inflation and unemployment rate further complicate this issue; high inflation can diminish purchasing power and economic stability, while elevated unemployment rates can lead individuals to seek precarious employment opportunities, increasing their risk of falling into trafficking situations (Njoku, 2015; Tallmadge and Gitter, 2018).

3.1 Variables and data source

This research examines the influence of political instability on human trafficking. Data from the World Bank, United Nations on drug and crime (UNODC), international labor organization (ILO), were utilized to construct a panel dataset covering 20 countries from 2013 to 2018. The data set is used to estimate human trafficking model, and both human trafficking origin and destination countries are considered. For these models the following variables are selected bearing in mind the theory and empirics on this subject. Variables and respective measures are as follows: ( Table 1)

3.2 The econometric model

The study utilized panel data because it is superior to pure time series or cross-sectional data in handling complex issues. Panel data models address unobserved variability, capture temporal dynamics, increase efficiency, manage endogeneity, and analyze individual-specific impacts.

Dynamic panel data models, specifically system GMM established by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998), outperform static and classic dynamic panel data models. These benefits derive from system GMM’s capacity to use both differences and levels of variables simultaneously, which improves efficiency and lowers bias in parameter estimates. According to Roodman (2009), system GMM effectively addresses difficulties of autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity within panels, making it a viable option for empirical study. Furthermore, it enables for the incorporation of more instruments, increasing the precision of estimations as compared to difference GMM, which only uses lagged differences as instruments. This is especially useful in small sample settings, when the chance of poor instruments is high. The main econometric model of the study, therefore, is the System GMM, but for triangulating the results, a dynamic fixed-effects model is also estimated.

Where ${\mathit{ht}}_{\mathit{it}}$ is the number of human trafficking victims, ${\mathit{ht}}_{\mathit{it}-1}$ is lag of human trafficking victims, and $x_{\mathit{it}}$ is a vector of explanatory variables. The vector of explanatory variables incudes: political instability, proxy voice and accountability, total population, population growth rate, inflation, and unemployment rate. Based on theoretical and empirical foundations, the study employs a dynamic panel data econometric model. The general model incorporates all variables of interest and is outlined as follows:

Where;

${\mathit{ht}}_{\mathit{it}}$ Is number of human trafficking victims.

${\mathit{ht}}_{\mathit{it}-1}$ is one year lag number of human trafficking victims, ${\mathit{Inf}}_{\mathit{it}}$ is inflation rate, ${\text{Unempt}}_{\mathit{it}}$ is unemployment rate, ${\mathrm{Pop}}_{\mathit{it}}$ is population growth rate, and ${\text{Psva}}_{\mathit{it}}$ is political instability proxies (voice and accountability). Whereas ${\eta }_i$ denotes unobserved time invariant heterogeneity, ${\beta }^{\prime }s$ are slope parameters, and ${\epsilon }_{\mathit{it}}$ is idiosyncratic error term.

4.1 Desk review report

The table below provides information on the attributes of both the perpetrators and the victims in cases of human trafficking, with a particular emphasis on gender, age, and the nature of the exploitation. The gender distribution of the victims reveals that 45% of them are men, or 8,000 people, and 55% of them are women or 9,600 people. This suggests that while women are marginally more likely to become victims, men also make up a sizable percentage of those who fall victim to human trafficking. On the other hand, the gender distribution of those who commit these crimes shows that women make up a substantial majority (78%, or 12,300 people), as opposed to men (38%, or 6,000 people). This implies that women are involved in some specific trafficking networks or operations, which may account for their significant contribution to the practice of human trafficking. The findings align with the 2016 EDHS report, which indicates that sexual violence is frequently perpetrated by individuals with whom women share an intimate connection. Of ever-married women aged 15-49 who have experienced sexual violence, 69% identified their current husband or partner as the perpetrator, while 30% mentioned former husbands or partners. Nevertheless, a notable percentage of all women who faced sexual violence also cited current or former boyfriends and other relatives (2% for each) as offenders.

Moreover, the age distribution of victims shows that adults make up 93% (16,400) of the total, while children make up only 7% (1,200). This discrepancy indicates that adult victims are the main target of trafficking operations, most likely because adult victims are more able to engage in labor or other exploitative activities. In terms of the kind of exploitation, forced labor is the most common, accounting for 58% of victims (12,200 people), and sexual exploitation comes in second at 13% (2,800 people). This suggests that, while sexual exploitation is still a major problem, labor exploitation is the main cause of human trafficking. The information shows that focused interventions are required to address the high frequency of forced labor and the substantial role that women play in both the perpetration and victimization of this crime. Finally, regional analysis of citizenship reveals that most victims originated from Asia (28.96%), Europe (27.78%), and Africa (24.92%), with minimal representation from the Americas and Oceania (1.31%). Similarly, the regions of exploitation align closely with these findings, with Asia (29.63%), Europe (30.35%), and Africa (20.15%) being the primary areas where trafficking occurs. The Americas and Oceania continue to represent a small portion of the data, contributing just 1% of the total (CTDC, 2024). Therefore, policies should provide customized support for each group, taking into account the unique vulnerabilities of adult and child victims. Additionally, a better understanding of the roles played by female perpetrates may result in preventative and law enforcement tactics that are more successful. All things considered, these observations demonstrate the complex dynamics of human trafficking and the need for addressing the cross-border aspect of human trafficking, strong international collaboration, and interdisciplinary strategies to address this problem and assist its victims.

4.1.1 Freedom of association and human trafficking

The Freedom of Association Index measures the extent to which parties and civil society organizations can form and operate freely, with values ranging from 0 to 1, where 1 indicates the highest level of freedom. When examining this index from 2003 to 2023, we observe distinct patterns across different countries, which can be correlated with income levels and trafficking in person ( Figure 3)

Figure 3. Freedom of Association Index and human trafficking victims.

Source: V-Dem (2024).

Note: The figure is produced using openly available data from V-Dem (2024).

Countries like Egypt, Venezuela, the UAE, Belarus, and Uzbekistan typically have lower Freedom of Association Index scores. These countries frequently have restrictive political environments, marked by authoritarian regimes or significant restrictions on civil liberties. For example, Egypt and Belarus have strict controls on political opposition and civil society activities. Venezuela’s political instability and economic crisis have resulted in severe restrictions on freedoms. The UAE, despite its wealth, maintains strict controls over political expression and association. Uzbekistan, historically under authoritarian rule, has only recently begun modest reforms. These low scores reflect the pervasive constraints on forming and operating civil society organizations and political parties, which are essential for political pluralism and democratic governance. Simultaneously, the number of human trafficking victims detected by Egypt has been increasing since 2017, with similar trends observed in Uzbekistan and Belarus. This rise in human trafficking incidents reflects broader issues related to weak governance and limited civil liberties.

In contrast, countries such as the United States, Australia, and Argentina consistently rank higher on the index. These countries uphold strong democratic values and civil liberties, creating an environment in which civil society and political parties can function with few restrictions. The United States and Australia, as high-income democracies, provide strong protections for freedom of association, contributing to political stability and a vibrant civic life. Argentina, despite economic challenges, maintains democratic institutions and civil liberties that allow for high levels of political engagement and association. The higher index points in these countries reflect supportive environments for association, crucial for sustaining democratic processes and political stability. The higher number of human trafficking victims detected by U.S. authorities is due to a robust legal framework, extensive resources, strong partnerships, and advanced technology. Public awareness campaigns and a victim-centered approach also enhance detection efforts, contributing to higher identification rates.

Nigeria, Mexico, and Togo are among the index’s middle-ranked countries. These countries frequently experience changing political conditions, with periods of both democratic and authoritarian rule. Political instability and regional conflicts in Nigeria can undermine civil liberties, but there are also periods of democratic engagement. Mexico, with its ongoing battles against corruption and organized crime, has a mixed record on freedoms, reflecting the conflict between democratic aspirations and security concerns. Togo has seen some political reforms, but longstanding authoritarian practices still limit full freedom of association. These mid-range scores suggest a moderate level of freedom of association, indicating some governmental interference but also opportunities for civic engagement and the possibility of higher trafficking in person trends.

4.2 Human trafficking model

In this model, we hypothesize that countries with free media, freedom of association, and freedom of expression tend to be politically stable. Consequently, politically stable countries are anticipated to experience fewer trafficking victims compared to unstable countries. Table 3 presents the estimates derived from the human trafficking model. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimates reveal that inflation, unemployment, total population, and a proxy for political instability (voice and accountability) are all significant factors influencing human trafficking dynamics.

Specifically, the findings confirm that freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media, as well as overall governmental accountability, contribute to reducing the prevalence of trafficking victims. The media serves as a crucial tool in combating human trafficking by raising awareness and educating the public about the issue. Investigative journalism can expose trafficking networks, thereby contributing to governmental accountability and public vigilance. In addition governance, characterized by transparency and accountability, is essential in addressing the root causes of trafficking. When governments are held accountable for their actions, they are more likely to implement policies that protect human rights and reduce vulnerabilities associated with trafficking. This includes creating legal frameworks that support victims and prevent exploitation through comprehensive anti-trafficking strategies.

The results are consistent with the findings of Ditmore and Thukral (2012), Das et al., (2013), and Movsisyan, S. (2018). Finally, higher unemployment rates and larger populations are associated with higher incidences of human trafficking victims. Furthermore, the estimation results suggest an inverse relationship between inflation and the number of human trafficking victims, implying that higher inflation rates may mitigate trafficking occurrences. Results of the control variables are also consistent with Onuoha, B. (2011), Njoku, A. O. (2015), and Tallmadge and Gitter (2018).