Keywords
TrialsTracker, publication bias, clinical trials
This article is included in the All trials matter collection.
TrialsTracker, publication bias, clinical trials
We read with great interest the article by Drs Powell-Smith and Goldacre1 on the incomplete reporting of clinical trial results by pharmaceutical companies and research institutions. The necessity to publish results of all clinical trials, regardless of the trial outcome, cannot be denied2. Failure to do so is unethical not only towards patients who have participated in these trials but also towards the medical community at large which relies on unbiased reporting to make informed decisions both in clinical practice and research3.
The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC), as a non-profit pan European clinical research organization, very much supports this view. EORTC is driven by the mission to improve the survival and quality of life of cancer patients, and adheres to a strict policy to publish all of its completed trials in full4. We were therefore surprised by the results from TrialsTracker5 stating that 52.6% of EORTC trials are missing results (20 trials out of 38). We downloaded the full trial dataset used by the tracker via GitHub (https://github.com/ebmdatalab/trialstracker). After selection according to the set criteria (ie. completed since 01/01/2006, interventional phase II or III, led by EORTC) a total of 29 relevant trials were found. The tracker classified these as: 14 with successful result reporting and 15 (51.7%) without results. We identified the latter 15 trials through the NCT ID number and cross-referenced this with the EORTC internal bibliography list. This (manual) investigation yielded the following results (see Table 1):
Caption:
NCT ID number: Identification number according to ClinicalTrials.gov registry.
EORTC ID number: Identification number according to EORTC.
Study title: Title of the study protocol.
Reference: the reference to the publication of the main results if available.
Publication status: Status of the publication of the main results according to the EORTC bibliography listing.
Trialstracker overdue status: Status of the publication of the main results according to the TrialsTracker algorithm. TRUE = overdue (ie. not published) / FALSE = not overdue (ie published).
Reason trialstracker in/exclusion: Main reason for discrepancy or accordance between EORTC and TrialsTracker publication status.
- A total of 9 trials had been successfully published, but the NCT ID number was not listed in PubMed’s Secondary Source ID field. For all of these trials the NCT ID was stated in the article itself and a link to the correct reference was provided in the publications section of ClinicalTrials.gov
- Three further trials had been recently successfully published without mention of the NCT ID number. The reference was not yet present in ClinicalTrials.gov but was scheduled to be updated soon.
- The last three trials were still undergoing analysis, and the planned publications were in various stages of development.
This would put the EORTC under-reporting “score” at 3/29 or about 10% of its trials being overdue for publication.
Our investigation revealed several shortcomings of the automated tracker algorithm:
- The decision to only accept results posted directly in ClinicalTrials.gov or with a listed NCT ID in PubMed’s Secondary Source ID field is very restrictive. EORTC does not post results in ClinicalTrials.gov directly as this presents a substantial administrative burden, and does not allow results to be put into context. Other organizations may be in the same situation.
- The authors state that since 2005 “all major medical journals (through the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors) have required trials to be registered, and all trials should include their registry ID in the text.” The majority of our trials, as identified by the tracker, fulfill these criteria, yet several were incorrectly classified due to absence of a specific PubMed field provided by the medical journals. Despite this omission, these trial results could be correctly found through recognized databases such as ClinicalTrials.gov and PubMed or even a standard search engine like Google.
- For at least two studies, the NCT ID PubMed link was available for a publication that did not contain the actual study results. The EORTC 55971 study on neoadjuvant treatment in ovarian cancer was published in NEJM in 20106. Yet this publication was not identified by the tracker, but two subsequent publications on exploratory subgroup analyses were considered as evidence of trial results publication7,8.
We also want to introduce two caveats to take into account when refining a tracker such as the one proposed:
- The algorithm can be easily manipulated to inflate the success rate for any trial sponsor by either not listing trials as completed or by listing them as terminated in the registry.
- Also, once the trial is completed, any publication with an adequate NCT ID PubMed link is sufficient for the TrialsTracker algorithm, which means articles on quality assurance, subgroups, translational research, prognostic models, or other data not containing actual trial results will inflate the statistics.
As a general observation, we feel that tracking publications linked to trials without checking these publications for accuracy and adequacy represents a simplistic measure of publication reporting. A substantial source of bias lies in the incorrect publication of trial results, often done with the intention to present larger treatment effects9. We feel such a tracking system, by increasing pressure to publish all trials on short notice, may contribute to the problem by leading to compromises on the quality of the publication.
A straightforward approach to resolve this could be to add to clinical trial registries an indicator on the publication status of final trial results. The sponsor would be responsible for updating this indicator and for providing the actual reference. Registry administrators could then check the appropriateness of the reference based on criteria already required to check online posting of results, therefore providing independent confirmation that the trial results are adequately published. Such an indicator would allow for more accurate reporting and could be used to set up an automatic alert system.
The EORTC welcomes initiatives to improve clinical trial reporting. The EORTC has an explicit data sharing policy (http://www.eortc.org/investigators/data-sharing/) that allows anyone to request direct access to clinical trial data from completed studies. In addition to ClinicalTrials.gov, EORTC also registers all its clinical trials that fall under the EU clinical trial directive (Directive 2001/20/EC) by default into EudraCT (https://eudract.ema.europa.eu). Since January 2016, summary clinical trial results must be made publicly available through the EU Clinical Trials Register for all EudraCT registered trials. The authors may consider this as an additional source of trial results sharing.
Our conclusion is that the proposed TrialsTracker is a much needed and welcome initiative. However, in this first implementation it is too simplistic to be of real informative use and its conclusions are misleading. We hope that improvements to the algorithm will converge in a useful tool that can address the very real and serious concern of unreported clinical trial results.
CC prepared the first draft. JB and LC were involved in the revision of the draft manuscript and have agreed to the final content.
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Competing Interests: I have previously blogged about the Trials Tracker and found similar results to Coen et al, namely that the Trials Tracker seriously underestimates publication rates. See http://www.statsguy.co.uk/the-trials-tracker-and-post-truth-politics/
References
1. Powell-Smith A, Goldacre B: The TrialsTracker: Automated ongoing monitoring of failure to share clinical trial results by all major companies and research institutions.F1000Res. 2016; 5: 2629 PubMed Abstract | Publisher Full TextCompeting Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
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