Keywords
In-hospital child mortality; Care-seeking, Referral; Paediatric; Malawi; low-income country
This article is included in the Global Public Health gateway.
This article is included in the University College London collection.
In-hospital child mortality; Care-seeking, Referral; Paediatric; Malawi; low-income country
Many countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, continue to suffer from a high child mortality rate.1 In 2018, The Lancet Global Health Commission on Quality Healthcare argued that poor quality of healthcare is a now a bigger barrier than access to care in reducing child mortality and accounts for as much as 60% of avoidable deaths in low and middle- income countries (LMIC).2 Under the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) and integrated Community Case Management (iCCM) programs, children with signs of severe illness in the community/health centre should be referred to higher level facilities for further management.3 IMCI does not include any components of emergency case management, and primary healthcare facilities in low-income countries commonly lack the resources to treat severely ill children.4 Furthermore, challenges in the identification of severely ill children have been reported under IMCI, potentially leading to missed referrals.5
Delays in care seeking for young children in LMIC have been reported due to guardians’ inability to recognise illness, household challenges in mobilising resources and/or deciding to seek care, especially in poor and less educated households.6–8 This, along with referral challenges within the health system including waiting times, poor triage, and lack of referral transport, could lead to increased risks for children who are brought to primary care with an acute illness, as adequate care at a higher-level facility may be further delayed.
This study was performed to assess the care-seeking patterns prior to being admitted to hospital, and to establish the association between pre-admission referrals and inpatient mortality for children in Mchinji District, Malawi.
Malawi is one of ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that achieved the Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce child mortality.9 Despite the improvements in child mortality in Malawi, the mortality rate still falls short of the Sustainable Development Goal target to reduce mortality among children less than five years of age to below 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Malawi adopted and implemented IMCI in 1999 and iCCM was introduced in Malawi in 2007. The World Health Organisation (WHO) Emergency Triage Assessment and Treatment (ETAT)10 has been implemented in Malawian tertiary and secondary hospitals.
Mchinji is a district in the Central Region of Malawi with a mainly rural population and with an under-five population of approximately 90,000 in 2018. Data was collected at the pediatric department of the main district hospital, Mchinji District Hospital (MDH) and the three community hospitals within the district. The health centers in the district do not offer any inpatient care, and children in need of admission are referred to hospital for further care.
The recruitment and data collection were planned for one year from the 9th of September 2019 but was stopped in April 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
This was an observational retrospective cohort study involving all children admitted to hospitals within Mchinji district during the study period.
Children aged 0-12 years old who were admitted to a paediatric ward at any of the four hospitals within Mchinji District during the study period were eligible for enrolment to the study. Neonates (age <28 days) who were born within the included hospitals and admitted into the neonatal unit were not included. Referral is the exposure and inpatient mortality the outcome.
Data collection involved interviews with guardians and patient file review which was performed by study data collectors, two were based at MDH and one each in the three community hospitals. The data collectors had a minimum education of completed secondary school and could read and write in English and Chichewa. All data collectors attended one week of training on the study protocol and ethics in research and were supervised on a weekly basis by field supervisors and a clinical officer. Data collectors approached caretakers of admitted children in the hospitals and asked for their consent to participate in the study. Following consent, data was collected on whether the caretaker had brought the child straight to the hospital, or whether another health facility had been visited before coming to the hospital. Patient demographics, including patient age, sex and admission diagnosis of the child, and the time and day of the hospital admission and outcomes were recorded from patient files and ward admission books. Data was entered into password protected tablets using Open Data Kit (ODK) for electronic data collection. The data was then exported to Stata for analysis but data can also be analysed in other software such as R. As data was collected at the hospital during admission, and records were kept over all patients, the risk of loss to follow up bias was minimal. All admitted children in the relevant age groups were invited to participate, eliminating the risk of selection bias.
The plan was to include all admitted children for one year using routine hospital admission data from the Mchinji district. While all district in Malawi were not included it is assumed that data from Mchinji is sufficiently representative to comfortable make generalisations to the whole population of interest.
The primary outcome variable for the analysis was inpatient mortality, and primary exposure was if the child had been referred from elsewhere prior to hospital admission. Age and sex of the child, day and time of admission and admission diagnosis were considered to be potential confounders. Sex was determined from medical records and any difference was explored as there are differences in mortality patterns between sexes in children under-five. All variables were converted into categorical variables. Admission days were categorized as weekdays (Monday to Friday) or weekends (Saturday and Sunday), and time as “day” (8 am to 8 pm) or “night” (8 pm to 8 am). This gave an indication if hospital admissions outside of daytime working hours, when there are less staff on the wards, were associated with higher mortality. Children could be assigned multiple admission diagnoses, we created binary variables for diagnosis category, meaning a total of more than 100% is presented in the diagnosis variable.
Proportions were stratified by facility type (district hospital versus community hospitals) and compared using chi2. Logistic regression analysis was done to determine the associations between the main exposure and outcome. All statistical analysis was preformed using Stata/IC 16.1. Stata was chosen as the researchers had license and experience using this software. Alternatively, the free statistical software R could have been used.
The study was approved by the College of Medicine Research and Ethics Committee in Malawi. Guardians were informed about the study and provided verbal consent for their minors to participate in the study prior to any data was collected. Due to literacy levels, study information was given verbally in Chichewa, and consent given verbally –the informed consent was subsequently recorded in the electronic data collection form. Refusal to participate had no impact on the care provided to the patients and study procedure including consenting was approved by the Malawi College of Medicine Research and Ethics Committee (reference: P11/18/25389).
A total of 4926 children were admitted to hospitals in Mchinji district during the study period. Of these, 4265 (86.6%) had been brought straight to hospital, and 661 (13.4%) children had been referred from another health care provider (Table 1). The proportion of admitted children that had been referred was higher at the district hospital compared to the community hospitals (29.0%, vs 3.9%, p<0.001). Out of the 4926 children who were admitted, 141 died with an overall in-hospital mortality of 2.9%. The in-hospital mortality was 5.3% for referred children compared to 2.5% for the self-referred cases (p<0.001). The in-hospital mortality was 3.3% at the district hospital compared to 2.1% at community hospitals for self-referrals (p=0.021). For referred cases, the in-hospital mortality was 5.3% at the district hospital and 5.2% at the community hospitals (p=0.998). The overall in-hospital mortality was higher at the district hospital at 3.9%, compared to 2.2% at the community hospitals (p=0.01).
Total | Mchinji district hospital | Community hospitals | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths (n/N) | Case fatality rate | Deaths (n/N) | Case fatality rate | Deaths (n/N) | Case fatality rate | |
Referral | ||||||
Referred | 35/661 | 5.3 | 29/545 | 5.3 | 6/116 | 5.2 |
Self-referred | 106/4265 | 2.5 | 44/1332 | 3.3 | 62/2933 | 2.1 |
Age | ||||||
<29 days | 6/172 | 3.6 | 2/41 | 4.9 | 4/131 | 3.1 |
1–12 months | 33/852 | 3.9 | 18/283 | 6.4 | 15/569 | 2.6 |
>1–5 years | 79/2758 | 2.9 | 37/1042 | 3.6 | 42/1716 | 2.5 |
>5–12 years | 23/1138 | 2.0 | 16/505 | 3.2 | 7/633 | 1.1 |
Sex | ||||||
Female | 71/2322 | 3.1 | 38/870 | 4.4 | 33/1452 | 2.3 |
Male | 70/2604 | 2.7 | 35/1007 | 3.5 | 35/1587 | 2.2 |
Admission diagnosis | ||||||
Pneumonia | 17/656 | 2.6 | 12/354 | 3.4 | 5/302 | 1.3 |
Malaria | 97/3345 | 2.9 | 44/1025 | 4.3 | 53/2320 | 2.3 |
Diarrhoea | 8/343 | 2.3 | 2/74 | 2.7 | 6/269 | 2.2 |
Meningitis/sepsis | 22/1047 | 2.1 | 6/248 | 2.4 | 16/799 | 2.0 |
Anaemia | 37/441 | 8.4 | 21/180 | 11.7 | 16/261 | 6.1 |
Malnutrition | 8/58 | 13.8 | 3/34 | 8.8 | 5/24 | 20.8 |
Trauma | 3/198 | 1.5 | 2/121 | 1.7 | 1/77 | 1.3 |
Other | 10/439 | 2.3 | 4/152 | 2.6 | 6/287 | 2.1 |
Admission time | ||||||
Weekday | 113/3603 | 3.1 | 59/1424 | 4.1 | 54/2179 | 2.5 |
Weekend | 28/1323 | 2.1 | 14/453 | 3.1 | 14/870 | 1.6 |
Day | 120/3978 | 3.0 | 65/1683 | 3.9 | 55/2295 | 2.4 |
Night* | 21/948 | 2.2 | 8/194 | 4.1 | 13/754 | 1.7 |
For the different age-groups, neonates (age <29 days) represented 3.6% of all admissions (172/4926), with a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 3.6%. Infants, aged one to 12 months, represented 16.9% (852/4926) of the admitted children and had the highest CFR at 4.1%. The biggest group of admitted children were between one and five years of age (2758/4926, 56.0%) while 1138 children (23.1%) were between five to 12 years of age. The one-five year olds had a CFR of 3.0% and the CFR for children aged five-12 years old was 2.0%. No mortality difference was seen depending on sex, with 52.9% of the admitted children being males and 47.1% females, and with a CFRs of 2.7% and 3.1%, respectively (p-value: 0.437).
The diagnosis with the highest CFR was malnutrition at 13.8%, followed by anaemia at 8.5%. A bigger proportion of children died from malnutrition at the community hospitals than at the district hospital, however the result was not significant (20.8%, vs 8.8%, p<0.191). The proportion that died of anaemia was higher in the district hospital (11.7%) than at the community hospitals (6.2%, p=0.039).
More children who were admitted during weekdays died; 3.1% versus 2.1% in weekends (p=0.06). The CFR among children admitted during the day was 3.0% versus a CFR of 2.2 for children admitted during the night (p=0.18).
The adjusted odds ratio of in-hospital mortality was 2.0 (95% CI:1.3-3.0) for children who were admitted to hospital who had been referred compared to those who had self-referred. Table 2 presents the unadjusted (UOR) and adjusted Odds Ratios (AOR) for the variables included in the logistic regression analysis.
Variable | Unadjusted odds ratio | p-value | 95% CI | Adjusted odds ratio | p-value | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Referral | ||||||
Not referred | 1.0 | |||||
Referred | 2.2 | <0.001 | 1.5-3.2 | 21.9 | 0.001 | 1.3-2.9 |
Age | ||||||
<29 days | 1.0 | |||||
1–12 months | 1.1 | 0.810 | 0.5-2.7 | 0.7 | 0.545 | 0.3-2.0 |
>1–5 years | 0.8 | 0.637 | 0.4-1.9 | 0.5 | 0.106 | 0.2-1.2 |
>5–12 years | 0.6 | 0.239 | 0.2-1.4 | 0.3 | 0.028 | 0.1-0.9 |
Sex | ||||||
Male | 1.0 | |||||
Female | 1.2 | 0.438 | 0.8-1.6 | 1.1 | 0.488 | 0.8-1.6 |
Admission diagnosis * | ||||||
Pneumonia | 0.9 | 0.655 | 0.5-1.5 | 1.0 | 0.904 | 0.6-1.9 |
Malaria | 1.0 | 0.818 | 0.7-1.5 | 1.4 | 0.195 | 0.6-2.2 |
Sepsis/meningitis | 0.7 | 0.098 | 0.4– 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.520 | 0.5-1.4 |
Diarrhoea | 0.8 | 0.542 | 0.4-1.6 | 1.0 | 0.950 | 0.5-2.2 |
Anaemia | 3.9 | <0.001 | 2.6-5.7 | 4.1 | <0.001 | 2.6-6.3 |
Malnutrition | 5.7 | <0.001 | 2.6-12.3 | 6.2 | <0.001 | 2.7-14.4 |
Trauma | 0.5 | 0.255 | 0.2-1.6 | 1.0 | 0.971 | 0.3-3.4 |
Other | 0.7 | 0.443 | 0.4-1.5 | 0.9 | 0.719 | 0.4-1.8 |
Admission time | ||||||
Weekday | 1.0 | 0.059 | 0.4-1.0 | 0.8 | 0.201 | 0.5-1.2 |
Weekend | 0.7 | |||||
Night | 1.0 | |||||
Day | 1.4 | 0.185 | 0.9-2.2 | 1.2 | 0.483 | 0.7-1.9 |
Most of the other included factors did not show any statistical significance. The exceptions were children in the age-group from five to 12 years, whose AOR for in-hospital mortality was 0.3 compared to neonates (95% CI: 0.1-0.9). Children who were diagnosed with anaemia or malnutrition at the point of admission had higher odds of dying: anaemic children had an AOR of 4.1 (95% CI: 2.7-6.3) and malnourished children had an AOR of 6.3 (95% CI 2.7-14.6).
We observed a higher in-hospital mortality among children who had been referred from a lower-level facilities compared to children who were brought straight to hospital in a rural Malawian setting. Most children who are admitted to hospital had been brought there without seeking any previous care at lower-level facilities. In terms of diagnosis, the evidence suggests children with malnutrition and anaemia carry an increased mortality risk.
The in-hospital mortality was twice as high for children who had been referred to hospital from a lower-level facility compared to children who were brought straight to the hospital. While the study did not establish the actual causes of the mortality, and whether those referred were sicker than the self-referred children, one explanation to the mortality difference could be that adequate care was delayed during the time it took to seek and receive care elsewhere, followed by the time it took to complete referrals. Lower-level facilities have limited abilities to offer stabilisation of severely ill children with transport issues for referrals reported as a main constraint.11,12 Delays may also occur within facilities including the decision to refer a child.13 While IMCI was rolled out in 1999 and include guidelines on when to refer a sick child, challenges in the sustainability have been reported including limitations in equipment, training, and adherence to guidelines.12,14 To ensure that all in need are referred early, current IMCI guidelines may need more objective definitions for timely stabilisation.15,16
The majority of children admitted to the included hospitals had come straight to the hospital. This may suggest a good awareness among guardians on when a child’s illness requires hospital care. Alternatively, there is a general preference for hospital care which could be due to lack of trust lower level facilities.17 A study conducted in Southern Malawi showed that patients satisfaction with the primary healthcare system demonstrated considerable variation18 and better facility quality is associated with a higher utilisation of sick child healthcare services.19
The highest mortality was seen among children diagnosed with malnutrition and anaemia. This confirms findings from previous studies20–22 and children with these diagnoses also suffer an increased risk of post-discharge mortality.23,24 It is possible the ETAT guidelines need to pay more attention to malnourished children with multiple diagnoses for priority and stabilisation at admission, and IMCI and iCCM should focus on earlier referral for children with malnutrition and anaemia. For age differences, young children had the highest mortality. While neonates generally suffer the highest mortality rates, in this study the mortality was highest among infants. Part of this may be explained by the study exclusion of babies born within the facilities, a recent study on place of death and care-seeking prior to death that poor illness recognition is a major driver in neonatal deaths, whereas death despite care-seeking among older children indicates inadequate quality care and referral.25
This study has several limitations. First, it is possible that referred children as a group were suffering from more severe conditions than the ones who were self-referred. The study did not collect any information on the symptoms at the time the decision to seek care was made or whether a progression occurred during the time spent on care seeking prior to reaching the hospital. Also, we did not collect any data on total numbers of completed referrals compared with those referred from health centres. There may have been children who did not make it to the hospital, who died on the way. There is also the possibility that caretakers who were recommended referral to hospital could not make their way there, causing an under-estimation of post-referral mortality. Similarly, we did not assess post-discharge mortality which is reportedly high in many sub-Saharan African settings.23
To conclude, the higher in-hospital mortality demonstrated between children who were referred from a health centre compared to self-referred cases may be linked to poor quality care at primary healthcare facilities, inadequate guidelines for when to refer a sick child and/or or difficulties to completing referrals. Future studies to better understand the demonstrated mortality pattern should include data on illness severity and caretaker’s reasons for care-seeking choices. The vulnerability of children with malnutrition and/or anaemia should be especially considered when assessing sick children at all levels of the health care system.
Repository: Harvard Dataverse: Mchinji ward admission data. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/E9ZJNH. 26
This project contains the following underlying data:
• 230522 Ward Admission Data.xls (variables used in analysis)
• Data dictionary Mchinji hospital data.xlsx (data dictionary)
Data are available under the terms of the Creative Commons Zero “No rights reserved” data waiver (CC0 1.0 Public domain dedication).
We would like to thank all the children and their parents/caretakers who participated in this study, and the healthcare workers who supported our data collector teams in their work. We are also grateful to the data collectors for their hard work, and the Mchinji District Health Management Team for their input and support.
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Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature?
Partly
Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound?
No
Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others?
No
If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate?
Partly
Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility?
Partly
Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results?
No
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Nutrition, Public health, Epidemiology
Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature?
Partly
Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound?
Partly
Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others?
No
If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate?
Partly
Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility?
Yes
Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results?
Partly
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Under 5 mortality in Malawi
Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature?
Partly
Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound?
Partly
Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others?
Partly
If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate?
Partly
Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility?
Partly
Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results?
Partly
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: I am a urologist. I have worked for 5 years in the field with governmental hospitals in Yemen mainly in the field of surgery and trauma.
Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article:
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