The Nexus of Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Conflict in Somalia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Multifaceted Challenges and Resilience Strategies

Introduction

Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges, causing rising temperatures, unpredictable weather patterns, and intense natural disasters.¹ These environmental shifts not only threaten ecosystems but also destabilize economies and societies worldwide, with Africa facing particularly acute risks due to its geographical exposure and socio-economic vulnerabilities such as widespread poverty, frequent conflicts, and dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture.^2–5 In Somalia, climate change is worsening the long-standing problems of political instability, armed conflict, and humanitarian crises.⁶ Somalia has endured decades of civil strife, which has weakened state institutions and left communities extremely vulnerable to shock.⁷ The additional pressure from climate change is creating new challenges, particularly in the areas of food security, displacement, and resource conflicts.^8,9 Over the past two decades, Somalia has experienced several severe droughts, with the most catastrophic event occurring in 2011, resulting in a famine that claimed over 250,000 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands more.¹⁰ Such disasters highlight the urgent need to understand and address the complex relationships between climate change, human security, and conflict dynamics in fragile countries, such as Somalia.

Somalia is mostly an arid and semi-arid country with only two permanent rivers, the Juba and Shabelle rivers, which originate in the eastern Ethiopian highlands.¹¹ In recent decades, the climate of the country has shifted towards more extreme and unpredictable weather conditions.¹² These changes pose serious threats to the country’s agricultural and pastoral economy. They also have far-reaching effects on water availability, food production, and socioeconomic stability.¹³ Frequent droughts and floods disrupt traditional livelihood systems and directly affect the well-being of millions of people.¹⁴ This perspective aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on food security and insecurity in Somalia. It examines the links between environmental stress, agricultural productivity, livelihood, displacement, and conflict.

Desertification, flooding, and disappearance of reliable freshwater

Desertification, deforestation, and land degradation are major problems in Somalia. From 2000 to 2015, the most prevalent types of land degradation were loss of vegetation, topsoil loss, and a decline in soil moisture.¹⁵ Overgrazing, tree cutting, poor agronomic practices, and limited use of soil and water conservation practices are the main causes of land degradation in Somalia.¹⁵ According to the rainfall probabilistic forecast for April-June 2024 (Figure 1), most Somalia is expected to experience above-normal rainfall, with a 55-60% probability of wetter conditions across much of the country. The coastal areas and parts of the northeast show a slightly lower probability (45-50%) of above-normal rainfall. This forecast suggests an increased likelihood of flooding events, particularly in flood-prone areas along rivers and low-lying regions.¹⁶

Figure 1. Sourced from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

Somalia is prone to three types of flooding: riverine flooding, flash floods, and coastal floods. In recent years, the country has seen an increasing severity and frequency of floods, resulting in human casualties, economic damage, and displacement.¹¹ Riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers has increased in scale and recurrence in recent decades, leading to human and economic losses and population displacement. For example, in 2020, the entire town of Belet Weyne (population 400,000) was flooded by the Shabelle River.¹¹ The Gu (April to June) rains of 2024 have affected over 124,150 people, with 5,100 displaced and seven children killed since April 19. Jubaland, Hirshabelle, and the Southwest States were also impacted. Flash floods inundate roads, airstrips, and displacement sites, forcing thousands of people to move to temporary shelters.¹⁷ Heavy rains are projected to continue in several regions, increasing the risk of further flooding and displacement.¹⁷ This exacerbates food insecurity and increases the risk of waterborne diseases such as acute watery diarrhea/cholera.^18,19

While Somalia is not inherently water-scarce, it faces severe water shortages due to poor water governance and management. Groundwater, which accounts for 80% of Somalia’s water supply, is highly contaminated owing to factors such as salinity, fluoride, and bacteriological contamination, which are significant issues for drinking and agriculture.^20,21 Access to basic sanitation facilities is low, with only 38% of people having access, and even lower in rural areas (20%).²² Climate change also affects water availability, and an increase in air temperature elevates evaporation rates, leading to reduced groundwater recharge and lower water levels in boreholes, which cause more frequent and severe droughts.¹⁸

Increasing droughts and food insecurity

Somalia is currently facing its worst drought in over 40 years, with an unprecedented fourth consecutive failed rainy season.²³ The 2024 “long rains” season from April to June is also likely to be below average, marking a potential fifth consecutive poor rainy season.¹⁶ Around 7.1 million Somalis, or nearly half the population, experience acute food insecurity at crisis levels or worse.²⁴ Approximately one million people, mostly women and children, have been displaced by extreme droughts.²⁵ These climate shocks severely disrupt farming, leading to widespread crop failure and livestock losses.²⁶ The 2011 famine, triggered by successive seasons of inadequate rainfall, caused mass starvation, displacement, and excess mortality, with an estimated 258,000 deaths.¹⁰ Between 2014-2018 alone, an estimated 44,700–163,800 excess deaths occurred in Somalia due to drought-related crises.²⁷ The temperature forecast for April-June 2024 (Figure 2) indicates that most Somalia is likely to experience above-normal temperatures. The forecast shows a high probability (70-80%) of warmer than usual conditions across the entire country, with the highest likelihood (80-90%) in the northeastern regions.¹⁶ This projected increase in temperature could exacerbate drought conditions, increase evaporation rates, and place additional stress on the water resources and agriculture.

Figure 2. Sourced from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

Recurrent droughts degrade soil fertility, whereas floods erode valuable topsoil, resulting in a double blow to agricultural productivity.²⁸ Water scarcity has become increasingly severe, threatening farming and straining limited resources.^29,30 In rural areas, competition for dwindling water supplies has intensified, often leading to conflicts among communities.³¹ The decrease in agricultural production due to climate change has serious implications for food security. Lower yields lead to increased food prices, rising hunger, and greater dependence on uncertain international assistance.³² The observed average mean surface air temperature for Somalia from 1991 to 2020 (Figure 3) shows that most of the country has experienced high average temperatures, ranging from 25°C to 30°C. Coastal areas tend to be slightly cooler owing to the moderating influence of the Indian Ocean, whereas the interior regions, particularly in the northeast, experience the highest average temperatures.³³ This baseline climate information helps contextualize the projected temperature increases and their potential impacts on agriculture and water resources.

Figure 3. Sourced from Climate Change Knowledge Portal - World Bank.

Poverty is widespread in Somalia, with over half of the population (54.4%) living below the poverty line and having a daily consuming less than USD 2.06.³⁴ The nomadic population had the highest poverty rate (78.4%), followed by rural areas (65.5%).³⁵ The data also show that food accounts for the largest portion of the total consumption expenditure in Somalia, averaging 55%.³⁵ This high proportion of income spent on food highlights the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Furthermore, urban areas have the highest average food expenditure per capita at $497, compared to $386 in rural areas and $329 in nomadic populations.³⁵ However, nomadic and rural households allocate a larger portion of their total expenditure on food at 60% and 58%, respectively, compared to 53% for urban households.³⁵ This indicates that, even with lower total expenses on food, rural and nomadic communities encounter higher risks of food insecurity. The monthly average minimum surface air temperature (Figure 4) revealed that Somalia experienced significant seasonal temperature variations. The lowest minimum temperatures occur in December and January, ranging from approximately 19°C to 22°C, whereas the highest minimum temperatures occur in April and May, reaching 28°C.³³ This seasonal pattern has important implications for agriculture because it affects planting times, crop growth cycles, and water requirements throughout the year.³⁶

Figure 4. Sourced from Climate Change Knowledge Portal - World Bank.

Threats to livestock and livelihoods

Livestock farming, a key component of Somalia’s economy and an important source of sustenance is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change.³⁷ The decline of the industry as a result of severe and unpredictable weather conditions has significant implications for both food security and people’s ability to earn a living.³⁸ Between 1990 and 2000, the region experienced a significant increase in livestock deaths due to drought, with mortality rates increasing by 60%. The impact was particularly severe during the 2001-2002/03 drought, which resulted in the loss of 80% of the total cattle population.³⁹ Droughts impose immediate and severe challenges on pastoral communities, leading to the depletion of water sources, sharp increases in food costs, declining health conditions, reduced livestock productivity and values, and widespread livestock mortality.⁴⁰ Pastoral communities suffer greatly from the loss of livestock resources as they deprive them of their primary source of income and sustenance. This increases their susceptibility to famine and extreme poverty, often causing them to migrate in search of suitable grazing areas and water sources.^41,42 Livestock susceptibility to climate extremes thus emerges as a critical factor that amplifies food insecurity and displacement risks in Somalia. Pastoral communities face a challenging situation, as confirmed by a recent report. Nomadic populations have the lowest median food consumption at $281 per person per year, compared to $364 in rural areas and $441 in urban areas.³⁵ Moreover, nomadic households rely more heavily on their production to meet food needs, at 13%, compared to just 4.5% for rural households and 0.6% for urban households.³⁵ This increased reliance on self-production makes nomadic populations highly vulnerable to climate shock, which devastates livestock and disrupts traditional food sources.

Conflict risks and climate-related displacement

Somalia’s food insecurity is closely related to its reduced agricultural output (Figure 5). This is worsened by the nation’s ongoing crises, including prolonged conflict, large-scale displacement of people, and unpredictable climate events.⁸ Vulnerable populations, particularly women, children, and displaced individuals, experience the most significant impacts of these overlapping crises. They face increased malnutrition and limited access to essential resources to sustain their lives.⁴³ The increasing lack of essential resources, especially water and fertile land, has led to the movement of people within countries and across borders as a means for communities affected by environmental pressure to cope with their changed way of life.^44,45 The arrival of displaced populations in new regions can place pressure on local resources, create conflicts with host communities, and overwhelm existing humanitarian support.^43,46,47 In Somalia, it is estimated that hundreds of thousands of people are currently on the move because of the impacts of drought and conflict, with many ending up in camps that are still filled with those displaced during previous floods and famines.⁴⁸

Figure 5. Impact of climate change on food security and conflict dynamics.

Intensifying competition over limited natural resources has also led to more conflicts, often along clan lines, worsening communal tensions, and escalating violence.⁴⁹ As resource availability decreases, these conflicts are likely to occur more often and with greater intensity, leading to increased instability in the region.⁵⁰ Research shows that an increase in the average temperature in Africa by two standard deviations leads to a 31% increase in the risk of conflict, mainly due to climate-related shocks affecting livestock prices.^51,52 Natural resource conflicts have become a focal issue in Somalia, gaining prominence as the country faces challenges related to climate change.⁵³ Armed groups also exploit resource scarcity and conflict to their advantage, emphasizing the need to prioritize natural resource conflict resolution as an entry point for tackling conflict drivers and fostering sustainable peace.^54,55 Even amidst severe droughts, it is essential to prioritize sustainable peacebuilding efforts through environmental restoration. These may involve activities, such as safeguarding riverbanks and implementing water catchment schemes, which can promote collaborative actions in the country.^56,57

Imperative for climate adaptation and resilience building

Somalia’s efforts to address the insecurity caused by climate change require a comprehensive approach that involves national initiatives and assistance from the international community.^58,59 Efforts include providing emergency relief during crises, such as food and water provision, along with long-term investments in climate-resilient agricultural practices, water conservation technologies, and early warning systems.⁶⁰ However, the success of these measures is frequently hindered by ongoing instability, inadequate governance, and disorganized coordination of aid.⁶¹ The lack of a powerful centralized authority to supervise efforts and the fragmented methods of different humanitarian organizations can lead to inefficiencies and limitations in coverage.⁶² Moreover, there is an urgent need for increased and aligned global support that extends beyond immediate disaster responses in order to adopt long-term development objectives.

Therefore, implementing measures focused on climate resilience, reducing the impact of environmental changes, and enhancing organizational readiness are crucial for ensuring long-term economic development in Somalia.⁶³ It is also important to build strong and resilient urban areas, while adopting comprehensive strategies for managing risks and integrating strategies that align climate adaptation with long-term development and conflict resolution. Strong international cooperation also plays a vital role in achieving sustainable outcomes.^64–66 Partners have pre-positioned supplies in 22 hotspot districts to meet the needs of 770,000 people expected to be affected by the 2024 Gu rains, including food, nutrition, sandbags, cholera kits, shelter kits, water, sanitation, and hygiene supplies.¹⁷ The Somalia Humanitarian Fund allocated US$3 million to anticipatory action to mitigate the impact of floods.⁶⁷ However, significant gaps remain, and the 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is only 10.3% funded, highlighting the need for urgent additional funding to scale up the response.¹⁷

Conclusion and recommendations

The complex interplay between climate change, food insecurity, and instability in Somalia presents a formidable challenge that requires a multifaceted and integrated approach. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly droughts and floods, have severely disrupted agricultural production, decimated livestock, and displaced vulnerable populations. These climate-induced stressors exacerbate existing socioeconomic challenges, including poverty, conflict, and weak governance, thereby creating a vicious cycle of vulnerability and instability. The impacts are particularly pronounced for rural and nomadic communities, whose livelihoods are intrinsically tied to climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and pastoralism. The recurrent nature of climate shock has progressively eroded community resilience, leading to widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, and forced displacement. Moreover, competition over dwindling natural resources has fueled local conflicts and provided opportunities for armed groups to exploit grievances, further destabilizing the region. This intricate web of challenges underscores the urgent need for a holistic approach integrating climate adaptation, peacebuilding, and sustainable development.

To address these interconnected issues effectively, a series of short- and long-term interventions are recommended. For example, in the short term, it is crucial to scale up humanitarian assistance for populations affected by droughts, floods, and conflicts. This should be complemented by investments in robust early warning systems to anticipate and mitigate climate-related risks. The 2024 Somalian Humanitarian Response Plan should receive increased funding to address the urgent need for vulnerable communities. Building long-term resilience requires substantial investments in climate-smart agriculture, water conservation, and alternative livelihood options. Prioritizing sustainable water management through the rehabilitation of water infrastructure, promotion of conservation practices, and improvement of water governance is essential.⁶⁸ Additionally, expanding social protection programs such as cash transfers and safety nets can provide critical support to the most vulnerable communities, particularly in rural and nomadic areas.⁶⁹

The promotion of climate-smart agricultural practices, including the cultivation of drought-resistant crops, implementation of improved irrigation systems, and adoption of sustainable land management techniques, are vital for enhancing food security and building resilience. Strengthening early warning systems and disaster preparedness mechanisms will enable timely and effective responses to climate shock.⁷⁰ Addressing the root causes of resource-based conflicts and promoting equitable access to natural resources requires fostering inclusive governance and conflict-resolution mechanisms.⁷¹ Enhanced coordination and collaboration among government agencies, international partners, and local communities are crucial for ensuring a coherent and effective response to the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change. However, the success of these interventions hinges on overcoming significant barriers including chronic insecurity, limited state capacity, and fragmented aid delivery. Strengthening institutions, improving coordination among stakeholders, and ensuring local ownership are critical for achieving sustainability. Ultimately, Somalia’s ability to navigate the challenges posed by climate change will depend on the concerted efforts of the government, civil society, and international partners to prioritize and invest in climate resilience as an integral part of the country’s development and peacebuilding agenda.

Author contributions

MMA and NID conceptualized and designed the study. OJO, JBO, AKM, SSM, MKM, ZKO, AA, and DS conducted literature review and data collection. MMA wrote the first draft of the manuscript. All the authors critically revised the manuscript for important intellectual content. DELP III supervised the study. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Ethics and consent

Ethical approval and consent were not required.