Keywords
CO₂ emissions; fossil fuel consumption; renewable energy; ecological transitions; welfare systems; environmental governance
This article is included in the Climate gateway.
This article is included in the Public Health and Environmental Health collection.
The relationship between the environment and public health has become an increasing concern on the international agenda, particularly in the European context, where the energy transition seeks to reconcile sustainable development with social well-being. This study examines how environmental degradation affects life expectancy in 20 European Union countries between 2000 and 2020, aiming to provide empirical evidence on the differentiated effects of pollutant emissions and energy sources across income levels.
A dynamic panel data model estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is employed, allowing for the control of endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and autocorrelation.
In middle-income countries, CO2 emissions significantly reduce life expectancy, reflecting institutional limitations in managing environmental risks. Conversely, the use of renewable energy sources is positively associated with life expectancy in middle-income countries,, while the effect is not statistically significant in high-income countries, suggesting context-dependent health co-benefits derived from the energy transition.
In contrast, in high-income countries, a paradoxical relationship emerges between fossil fuel consumption and higher life expectancy, which can be attributed to the robustness of their welfare systems and environmental regulations.
CO₂ emissions; fossil fuel consumption; renewable energy; ecological transitions; welfare systems; environmental governance
Environmental degradation is a multidimensional and progressive process characterized by the deterioration of natural ecosystems, primarily driven by anthropogenic activities that exceed the resilience thresholds of ecological systems. As explained by Long and Steel,1 this phenomenon weakens the structural and functional integrity of ecosystems, accelerates biodiversity loss, and disrupts essential ecological dynamics. The overexploitation of natural resources—exacerbated by agricultural expansion, unplanned urbanization, and pollution—has surpassed the carrying capacity of many ecosystems, diminishing their ability to provide essential services.2,3
Climate change further intensifies this trend through rising temperatures, increased climatic variability, and sea-level rise, amplifying the negative socioeconomic impacts in vulnerable regions.4
From an institutionalist perspective, these environmental risks cannot be detached from the design and effectiveness of formal norms, regulatory agencies, and governance structures. As noted by,5,6 institutions play a decisive role in shaping policy responses and determining how societies internalize environmental externalities. Thus, environmental degradation represents not only a biophysical process but also an institutional failure that perpetuates poverty, territorial exclusion, and socio-environmental vulnerability.7
In the 21st century, life expectancy must be interpreted as an outcome conditioned by both environmental and institutional determinants of well-being. Environmental degradation—through biodiversity loss, pollution, and resource depletion—directly undermines the conditions required for a healthy and dignified life, particularly among vulnerable populations.
As argued by,8,9 sustainable well-being requires acknowledging the intrinsic link between quality of life and ecological integrity. Building on this, institutionalist theory posits that the design and strength of public institutions mediate the effects of environmental degradation on social outcomes, including health.9,10
Accordingly, life expectancy should be actively linked to the institutional capacity to integrate environmental justice, territorial resilience, and intergenerational equity into public policy.11,12
Consequently, the welfare state must transcend its traditional redistributive focus and incorporate ecological risks as structural components of long-term social policy.13
Empirical evidence confirms that air pollution, extreme weather events, and climate change exacerbate public health crises, disproportionately affecting low-income populations, older people, and children.13–15
These environmental stressors not only reflect ecological imbalances but also reveal institutional weaknesses, especially when welfare systems lack adaptability and robustness to mitigate their effects.16,17
In rural and agricultural regions, phenomena such as food and water insecurity—stemming from ecological degradation—undermine livelihoods and access to essential services.18
As highlighted in institutionalist studies, these outcomes are not inevitable but depend on the strength and coherence of governance systems. In this context, state intervention must evolve from reactive mechanisms toward proactive strategies, including climate-resilient infrastructure, integrated planning, and regulatory reforms that prioritize social and environmental justice.19,20
This reorientation entails developing an “ecological welfare state” capable of addressing the overlapping demands of sustainability, equity, and resilience through institutional innovation and multilevel coordination.9,10
Rethinking life expectancy within the ecological crisis framework requires reconfiguring its institutional foundations to embed the governance of environmental commons. This case includes adopting participatory governance tools, environmental impact assessments, and socio-ecological planning instruments that strengthen co-responsibility and legitimacy in public investment. Regulatory frameworks must reflect the interdependence between environmental integrity and social rights, moving beyond fragmented policy responses.
As emphasized by,5 institutions shape the incentives, constraints, and capacities of actors to respond effectively to complex challenges. Therefore, integrating scientific and local knowledge, ensuring equitable access to resources, and reinforcing institutional accountability can enhance the transformative potential of welfare regimes. In sum, reinforcing life expectancy as a central indicator of sustainable development requires embedding ecological dimensions as both preconditions and drivers of equitable and resilient societies.
Although previous studies have documented the effects of air pollution, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuel use on life expectancy,21,22 few have analyzed these relationships within a normative and institutional framework that incorporates the logic of the welfare state. This study seeks to bridge that gap by integrating environmental degradation variables—such as CO2 emissions and fossil fuel dependency—into a dynamic empirical model of life expectancy, framed within the concept of an “ecological welfare state”.9,10,23 In doing so, it aligns environmental outcomes not only with public health but also with the structural role of state intervention in providing collective goods, regulating externalities, and mitigating ecological risk through formal institutions.
The relationship between environmental degradation and life expectancy has attracted growing attention over recent decades, particularly in light of global climate change and its impact on public health. Foundational studies have linked ecological deterioration—including pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate variability—to adverse health effects, especially among vulnerable populations.1–3
These findings highlight how environmental stressors disrupt ecosystem services essential to human well-being, such as access to clean air and water.
While numerous empirical studies have documented the adverse effects of CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption on life expectancy,22,24 and others have emphasized the importance of access to safe drinking water,25,26 most have treated these variables in isolation, without situating them in an institutional context. This study addresses that gap by applying institutionalist theory, which emphasizes that development outcomes are shaped not only by economic or environmental factors but also by the quality, design, and responsiveness of institutions.27,28
Under this framework, we argue that environmental degradation affects life expectancy through both direct and institutionally mediated channels. Strong institutions—such as comprehensive welfare states, effective environmental agencies, and inclusive infrastructure policies—can mitigate the harmful effects of pollution and ecological risks by providing essential services and regulatory safeguards.9,10
Conversely, weak institutions exacerbate vulnerability by failing to internalize environmental costs and ensure equitable service provision.
This study proposes two key hypotheses:
(1) Higher CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption reduce life expectancy by exposing populations to greater environmental risks. However, the magnitude and direction of these effects are expected to vary depending on institutional quality and income level.
(2) The use of renewable energy sources improves life expectancy by strengthening resilience and reducing ecological pressures.
To empirically test these hypotheses, a dynamic panel data model is estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for 20 European Union countries over the period 2000–2020, capturing both temporal dynamics and unobserved heterogeneity.21,29
Our contribution lies in integrating environmental and institutional variables within a theoretical model of life expectancy, offering a broader understanding of how public health outcomes are shaped by ecological risks and institutional capacity in a comparative European context.
According to,24 life expectancy refers to the average age an individual is expected to reach under specific social and health conditions. However, this measure goes beyond a mere demographic estimate.
As noted by,30 life expectancy reflects not only the general health status of a population but also the cumulative effects of socioeconomic and environmental conditions, as well as effective access to essential services such as safe water, education, and healthcare.
In this sense,22 highlights that environmental degradation—measured through CO2 emissions—has a significant negative impact on life expectancy. In other words, countries with higher levels of environmental pollution tend to experience a greater decline in population well-being.
Analyzing environmental degradation requires incorporating indicators that capture both direct environmental pressures and their collateral impacts on quality of life. In this study, five representative variables are selected: carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, fossil fuel consumption, and the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. Institutional structures play a critical role in mediating these relationships, as they determine the efficiency, equity, and responsiveness of public health and environmental policies influencing longevity.27
CO2 emissions—recognized as the primary contributor to global greenhouse gases—originate primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels in electricity generation, transportation, and industrial production. In Europe, despite progress in decarbonization, the correlation between economic prosperity and emissions remains evident, particularly in high-income countries where per capita energy consumption is high.
According to,31 although this relationship is more pronounced in Latin America, European countries are not exempt, as their industrial legacy, high mobility patterns, and energy-intensive lifestyles continue to pose environmental challenges.
Reference [32] further notes that in the European context, sectors such as transportation and manufacturing remain significant sources of emissions, driven by urbanization and the persistent dependence on fossil-based energy systems.
However, unlike many regions, Europe has made substantial progress in diversifying its energy matrix, integrating renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. These measures—alongside energy efficiency policies and clean technologies—are central to the European Green Deal’s ambition to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.33,34
The effectiveness of these mitigation strategies largely depends on institutional governance, which influences both regulatory enforcement and technological diffusion.25,35
Fossil fuel use remains one of the main drivers of environmental degradation, as it constitutes the primary source of CO2 emissions, one of the most significant greenhouse gases contributing to climate change.26,36
Despite being a non-renewable, finite resource, its exploitation remains intensive globally.
According to,36 even if humanity were to exhaust all existing reserves—a process that could take several centuries—the climatic consequences for the planet’s balance would be catastrophic. Therefore, relying on the natural depletion of fossil fuels cannot be considered a viable or responsible strategy in the face of the current climate crisis.
Today, key sectors such as industry, transportation, and electricity generation remain heavily dependent on coal, oil, and natural gas. This dependence intensifies the emission of pollutants that, once released into the atmosphere, can travel long distances, producing transboundary effects on air quality, public health, and global climate stability.21,37
Institutional capacity, including the ability to regulate energy transitions and enforce environmental standards, remains a central variable in managing fossil fuel dependence.
The deployment of renewable energy is widely recognized as a key factor and strategic opportunity to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and advance toward a sustainable development model.
According to,38 urban areas account for more than 70% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, underscoring the urgency of transitioning to clean, sustainable energy sources.
Among the most viable alternatives are solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower, which not only substantially reduce emissions but also promote energy diversification and decrease dependence on fossil fuels. This transition further generates co-benefits, including improved air quality, growth in local green economies, and enhanced energy resilience against future shocks.33,38
Promoting these technologies—supported by coherent public policies and green financing mechanisms—is essential to meeting the climate targets set under the Paris Agreement. The institutional environment—through regulatory stability, investment incentives, and public–private partnerships—conditions the pace and inclusivity of this energy transformation.
When examining the relationship between life expectancy and environmental degradation, it is crucial to recognize that the issue transcends biophysical factors such as deforestation, rising global temperatures, or greenhouse gas emissions. What is ultimately at stake is human life, public health, and the quality of life of millions of people. Each environmental indicator reflects deeply rooted social and institutional dimensions, as ecological deterioration disproportionately affects vulnerable populations through systemic inequalities and governance gaps.
From an institutionalist perspective, these outcomes underscore the state’s central role as a regulator of environmental risks, an active provider of collective goods, and a redistributor of environmental protections. As emphasized by,9 integrating ecological sustainability into the design of life expectancy metrics requires acknowledging the interdependence between social systems and environmental governance.
In this context, well-being should not be defined solely in terms of income or service access, but also by the institutional capacity to ensure environmental conditions that sustain life. Understanding how ecological factors influence well-being thus becomes an urgent institutional challenge, not only for academic research but also for the design of resilient public policies grounded in equity, environmental justice, and long-term social protection frameworks.38
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was transformed using natural logarithms because its values were considerably higher than those of the other variables. This transformation helped stabilize the variance, reduce skewness, and ensure that the data could be processed and analyzed on an equal basis with the other indicators included in the econometric model.
The objective of this study is to analyze the behavior of the factors contributing to environmental degradation and their impact on life expectancy in European Union member countries. To this end, a quantitative research approach was employed, using panel-data regression models that capture both temporal and cross-sectional variability throughout the study period.
The data were obtained from the Our World in Data platform (https://ourworldindata.org/data), which compiles information from multiple international organizations — including the World Bank, OECD, and leading academic institutions. The data were downloaded in CSV format and subsequently filtered for analysis. The platform provides environmental, social, and public health statistics for EU countries.
The study sample comprises the following 20 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden.
To ensure a more representative analysis of Europe’s economic and environmental realities, countries were divided into two groups based on per capita income.
• The high-income group includes: Luxembourg, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Germany, Belgium, and France.
• The middle-income group includes: Italy, Spain, Czechia, Portugal, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, Romania, and Bulgaria.
This classification enables the exploration of structural differences and distinct patterns in the relationship between environmental degradation and life expectancy. The analysis period covers 2000 to 2020.
In line with institutional theory, which emphasizes the role of governance structures, public policies, and institutional quality in shaping social outcomes (6,27), this study integrates environmental and infrastructure indicators as reflections of the state’s capacity to regulate, provide, and adapt to ecological challenges ( Table 1). Further information is available in the Mendeley open repository.39
| Type of variable | Variable | Conceptual definition | Unit of measurement | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent | Life Expectancy | A summary measure of population health that estimates the average number of years a person is expected to live based on current mortality rates.40 | Years | Our World in Data |
| Independent | CO2 Emissions | Amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, a process in which gases absorb part of the sun’s energy, thereby causing an increase in temperature.41 | Metric tons of CO2 per person per year | Our World in Data |
| Independent | Fossil Fuel Consumption | Primary source of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions; there are three primary types of fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas.42 | Percentage (%) of total energy consumption | Our World in Data |
| Independent | Use of Renewable Energy as a Primary Energy Source | Natural processes that can be repeated and allow the generation of clean and inexhaustible energy.43 | Percentage (%) of total energy consumption | Our World in Data |
| Independent | GDP per capita at constant prices (log-transformed) | Market value of the final goods and services produced in an economy during a given period of time.44 | U.S. dollars (log) | World Bank |
CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption were included because they play complementary, non-redundant roles from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Although fossil fuel combustion is the primary anthropogenic source of CO2 emissions,45 the impact of each variable on public health and life expectancy may operate through distinct mechanisms.
• Fossil fuel consumption reflects a country’s energy structure and dependency, as well as its energy intensity and the effectiveness of transition policies.38
• CO2 emissions, in contrast, represent a cumulative environmental outcome with more direct effects on air quality and human health, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.24,38
The logarithm of GDP per capita was used because its raw values were substantially higher than those of the other variables. This adjustment stabilizes variance, reduces skewness, and enables comparability across all indicators in the model.
The literature treats these two environmental dimensions—energy use and emissions—as distinct, justifying their simultaneous inclusion in multivariate econometric models. For example,21,22 note that although emissions stem from fossil energy use, their behavior may vary depending on energy efficiency, fuel type (coal, gas, oil), and the adoption of mitigation technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
Empirically, this study confirms that collinearity between these variables does not compromise model robustness. The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values remain well below the critical threshold (VIF < 2), validating their simultaneous inclusion. Moreover, considering both variables enhances explanatory power by distinguishing between sources of environmental stress (energy use) and their direct environmental effects (emissions) on life expectancy—thus avoiding the omission of key analytical dimensions.
To formally specify the econometric structure, a dynamic panel data model estimated through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was adopted, following.46 This methodology controls for unobserved heterogeneity, potential endogeneity among explanatory variables, and autocorrelation in the error terms—issues commonly found in macro-level longitudinal data.
The basic form of the model is:
Where:
• : Change in life expectancy for country iii at time ttt (dependent variable).
• : Lagged change in life expectancy, capturing the dynamic nature of the process.
• : Lagged change in fossil fuel consumption (% of energy use).
• : Lagged change in CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita).
• : Lagged change in the share of renewable energy in total energy supply.
• : Lagged change in natural logarithm GDP per capita (current USD), included as a control variable.
• ε it: Error term, assumed to be uncorrelated with the instruments used.
From an institutionalist perspective, this model is particularly well-suited to capturing the cumulative effects of public policies over time, reflecting how institutional stability, regulatory frameworks, and welfare-state interventions shape the capacity to respond to environmental challenges. The use of a dynamic specification, incorporating lagged effects and infrastructure variables, enables testing for persistent features of institutional performance.
This specification aligns with established empirical practices in environmental economics and public health, where dynamic relationships and persistence effects are common. By integrating environmental, infrastructural, and economic indicators within a dynamic and institutionally informed framework, the model provides robust empirical evidence on the determinants of life expectancy in the European Union over the period 2000–2020.
Figure 1 illustrates the temporal evolution between 2000 and 2020. The dependent variable in the analysis is life expectancy, while the independent variables include fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, renewable energy use, and GDP per capita.

The charts for high-income European countries present key trends in the relationships among environmental, economic, and health factors.
First, life expectancy remains relatively stable across all countries, with marginal but consistent increases during the 2000–2020 period. This study reflects the consolidation of strong health and welfare systems—characteristic of developed economies—where improvements in longevity tend to be sustained over time.
Second, fossil fuel use is declining in several countries, particularly Denmark, Sweden, and Germany, indicating progress in the energy transition. However, in countries such as Luxembourg and Ireland, fossil fuel consumption remains comparatively high, suggesting that energy dependence remains a structural challenge.
Similarly, renewable energy use is on the rise in most countries, particularly in Denmark, Sweden, and Germany, highlighting the impact of environmental policies on the energy matrix. Nonetheless, this growth has not yet been sufficient to replace dependence on fossil fuels entirely.
Finally, CO2 emissions show relative stability or slight reductions, consistent with the gradual adoption of sustainability-oriented policies. Overall, the results indicate that although the energy transition is advancing in these high-income countries, reconciling economic growth (lnGDP per capita) with environmental sustainability remains a persistent challenge—particularly in nations with greater reliance on fossil energy.
The descriptive results presented in Table 2 provide an overview of the behavior of the variables analyzed in high-income European countries.
First, life expectancy averages 80.26 years, with low variability (standard deviation of 1.42) and a range of 76.54 to 83.05 years. This study reflects a high and relatively homogeneous level of population health, indicative of advanced welfare systems, well-established healthcare services, and robust social policies.
Regarding fossil fuel use, the mean is 74.07% of the energy matrix, with considerable dispersion (standard deviation of 19.82) and values ranging from 27.14% to 99.08%. These results suggest that, despite environmental commitments, fossil fuels remain the dominant energy source, though with substantial differences across countries.
CO2 emissions average 9.82 metric tons per capita, ranging from 3.54 to 25.95. This study’s wide distribution indicates that while some countries have advanced in decarbonization, others maintain high emission levels—posing significant challenges for environmental sustainability.
Renewable energy use averages 18.13%, with high variability (standard deviation of 14.85%) and values ranging from 1.28% to 57.83%. This case points to an uneven energy transition across the region: some countries are rapidly advancing toward renewable energy, while others remain dependent on conventional sources.
Finally, GDP per capita (log-transformed) averages 10.77, with low dispersion (0.29) and a range of 10.41 to 11.62. This case confirms high income levels among the countries studied, with relatively minor differences compared to other variables ( Table 2).
The analysis of medium-income European Union countries reveals consistent patterns in the relationship between environmental and economic variables and life expectancy. In general, life expectancy maintains a relatively stable upward trajectory, though at a more moderate slope than in high-income countries.
Fossil fuel consumption shows a gradual decline in most cases, reflecting ongoing energy transition processes, although levels remain comparatively high in countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece.
In contrast, renewable energy use is growing notably, particularly in Portugal, Romania, and Bulgaria, where expansion is more pronounced. This increase reflects policy-driven transitions toward sustainable energy sources.
However, CO2 emissions show slight but persistent increases in several countries, underscoring the challenges of decoupling economic growth from environmental pressures.
Finally, GDP per capita shows moderate growth, although disparities among countries remain evident, with southern and eastern European states showing slower progress.
These findings emphasize that institutional capacity and public policy frameworks play a decisive role in mediating the impact of environmental and economic changes on health outcomes ( Figure 2).
The results presented in Table 3 summarize the descriptive statistics for medium-income European Union countries.
Life expectancy averages 77.45 years, with a standard deviation of 3.34 and a range of 70.81 to 83.47 years. This study indicates moderate variability among countries, although, in general, the values remain within relatively high levels of population health.
Regarding environmental indicators, fossil fuel use averages 82.78%, with notable dispersion (SD = 8.22), reflecting differences in energy dependence among Member States. In contrast, CO2 emissions are comparatively moderate, averaging 6.80 metric tons per capita (SD = 2.16), ranging from 3.80 to 12.50, revealing a significant gap in environmental pressures.
On the positive side, renewable energy use averages 15.70% (SD = 7.37), although the minimum value of 4.63% indicates substantial disparities in ecological transitions across countries.
Finally, GDP per capita (ln) averages 9.62, with a low standard deviation (0.52) and a range of 8.22 to 10.43. This case reflects differences in economic performance, but with a more compact distribution than for environmental indicators.
Overall, the table highlights structural inequalities in energy use and environmental impacts, with direct implications for health and sustainability outcomes in medium-income European Union countries.
The following sections present a comparative analysis of the relationship between environmental degradation and life expectancy, differentiating the results for high- and medium-income countries. This segmentation enables the identification of specific patterns and the contrast of how environmental variables affect population health across different institutional and socioeconomic contexts.
For the group of high-income countries, Table 4 presents the results of the Im, Pesaran, and Shin (IPS) unit root test applied to the variables included in the analysis. This test evaluates the stationarity of the panel data series.
At the level (in their original form), none of the variables show statistically significant evidence of stationarity, as the p-values exceed the conventional 0.05 threshold. For example, the life expectancy variable yields a p-value of 1.0000, while CO2 emissions and fossil fuel use present p-values of 0.3164 and 0.9577, respectively, indicating the presence of a unit root.
However, when the test is applied to the first differences of the series, all variables become stationary, with significantly low p-values (p < 0.05). In particular, life expectancy and CO2 emissions show p-values of 0.0000 and 0.0002, respectively, confirming stationarity in first differences.
This evidence suggests that the series are integrated of order one, a condition that justifies transforming the variables before proceeding with the GMM estimation to avoid spurious regressions.
The Arellano–Bond,47 test applied to the high-income European countries shows no evidence of autocorrelation in the first-difference residuals, as both AR(1) (z = −0.88; p = 0.378) and AR(2) (z = 0.29; p = 0.768) yield p-values greater than 0.05. This case prevents rejection of the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation.
This result is relevant because it ensures that the residuals do not exhibit short- or medium-term serial correlation—a necessary condition for the validity of GMM estimators. Consequently, it confirms that the instruments used are appropriate and that the dynamic model is correctly specified, providing robustness and consistency to the results obtained ( Table 5).
| Order | z | Prob > z |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.88 | 0.378 |
| 2 | 0.29 | 0.768 |
Table 6 presents the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values for each explanatory variable included in the model. This test evaluates the degree of collinearity among independent variables, which is essential to ensure the validity of econometric estimates.
| Variables | VIF |
|---|---|
| Life expectancy | 1.95 |
| Use of fossil fuels | 1.82 |
| CO2 emissions | 1.40 |
| Use of renewable energy as a primary source of energy | 1.26 |
| lnGDP per capita | 1.24 |
As a general rule, VIF values below 5 indicate no serious multicollinearity, while values below 2 are considered optimal.
Table 7 presents the results of the Hansen test for overidentifying restrictions in the GMM model. The chi2(2) statistic is 0.28, with an associated probability of 0.600.
| restrictions: chi2(2) = 0.28 | Prob > chi2 = 0.600 |
Since the p-value is greater than 0.05, the null hypothesis of valid instruments cannot be rejected. This case implies that the instruments used in the model are uncorrelated with the error term, thereby reinforcing the reliability of the estimated model.
Before estimating the dynamic model using the Arellano–Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), a diagnostic test was conducted to identify possible heteroscedasticity in the model variables. The results indicated that some variables exhibited this issue, potentially compromising estimator efficiency. To address this limitation and ensure robust results, the GMM model was estimated with robust standard errors, yielding consistent estimates even in the presence of heteroscedasticity.
The dynamic estimation following Arellano and Bond (1991) for high-income European countries yields several key findings. Table 8 presents the results of the dynamic panel-data estimation using the Arellano–Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for high-income European Union countries.
| Group variable: COUNTRY Time variable: YEAR | Number of obs | 190 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obs per group | ||||
| min | 19 | |||
| Avg | 19 | |||
| Max | 19 | |||
| Number of instruments | 8 | Prob > chi2 | 0.0000 | |
First, the dependent variable, life expectancy, shows a negative but statistically insignificant coefficient. This case suggests limited persistence in life expectancy, indicating that in high-income contexts, institutional maturity already provides relative stability in health outcomes.
Second, a significant result is observed for fossil fuel use, with a positive, statistically significant coefficient. This study indicates that, in these countries, fossil fuel consumption is associated with higher life expectancy. This paradox may reflect the fact that strong institutional frameworks and advanced welfare systems cushion the immediate adverse effects of fossil fuel use, even though long-term environmental risks persist.
In contrast, both CO2 emissions and renewable energy use show statistically insignificant coefficients, suggesting that their marginal impact on life expectancy is weak in high-income countries—probably because public health outcomes are already supported by well-established welfare and environmental institutions.
Similarly, GDP per capita does not show a significant effect, suggesting that additional economic growth in advanced economies does not directly translate into measurable improvements in life expectancy.
For the group of medium-income countries, Table 9 reports the results of the Im–Pesaran–Shin (IPS) unit root test applied to the main variables to determine their integration orders. This test is used in panel-data models to verify the presence of a unit root (H0) versus the alternative hypothesis of common stationarity (H1).
According to statistical criteria, p-values below 0.05 indicate rejection of the null hypothesis and suggest that the series is stationary.
The results show that none of the variables is stationary in levels, since all exhibit p-values greater than 0.05. For example, the life expectancy variable has a p-value of 1.0000, and CO2 emissions a p-value of 0.2573, indicating the presence of a unit root in their original form.
However, when the test is applied to first differences, several variables become stationary: life expectancy (p = 0.0025), CO2 emissions (p = 0.0023), renewable energy use (p = 0.0003), and GDP per capita (p = 0.0439). These results suggest that the variables are integrated of order one, satisfying the conditions for their inclusion in dynamic models such as GMM.
Table 10 presents the results of the Arellano–Bond test applied to the medium-income European countries to assess the presence of autocorrelation in first-difference errors.
| Order | z | Prob > z |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.10 | 0.269 |
| 2 | −0.85 | 0.393 |
The results show that for order 1, the z statistic is −1.10 with a probability of 0.269, while for order 2, the z statistic is −0.85 with a probability of 0.393.
Since in both cases the p-values exceed 0.05, the null hypothesis (H0) of no autocorrelation in the residuals cannot be rejected. This study indicates that first-difference errors do not exhibit first- or second-order serial correlation, a key condition for the validity of the Arellano–Bond GMM estimator.48
Table 11 reports the Variance Inflation Factors (VIFs) for the explanatory variables in the model to assess multicollinearity. This indicator detects potential redundancies among independent variables that could distort econometric estimates.
| Variables | VIF |
|---|---|
| Life expectancy | 3.47 |
| Use of fossil fuels | 3.29 |
| CO2 emissions | 1.32 |
| Use of renewable energy as a primary source of energy | 1.27 |
| lnGDP per capita | 1.04 |
As a general rule, VIF values below 5 are considered acceptable.
In this case, the results indicate no serious multicollinearity among variables, since all values fall below the critical threshold. The variables life expectancy (3.47) and use of fossil fuels (3.29) have the highest VIFs, though they remain within a manageable range. Other variables—CO2 emissions (1.32), renewable energy use (1.27), and GDP per capita (1.04)—show low collinearity.
The Hansen test for overidentification yields χ2(2) = 1.85, with a p-value of 0.396, confirming the validity of the instruments used in the estimation. Since the p-value exceeds 0.05, there is no evidence of correlation between the instruments and the error term, avoiding overfitting issues and ensuring the consistency of the GMM model results ( Table 12).
| restrictions: chi2(2) = 1.85 | Prob > chi2 = 0.396 |
The dynamic panel-data estimation results for medium-income European countries are presented in Table 13. First, lagged life expectancy shows a positive coefficient (1.30), although not statistically significant (p = 0.603), suggesting weak temporal persistence of this variable within the group of countries analyzed. This study suggests that institutional stability in these nations reduces the dependence of longevity on past values.
| Group variable: COUNTRY Time variable: YEAR | Number of obs | 189 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obs per group | ||||
| min | 18 | |||
| Avg | 18.90 | |||
| Max | 19 | |||
| Number of instruments | 8 | Prob > chi2 | 0.0000 | |
Second, fossil fuel use shows a positive coefficient (0.43), but it is not significant (p = 0.273), suggesting a relationship without sufficient statistical evidence.
However, two relevant findings emerge:
• CO2 emissions have a negative and statistically significant effect (−0.71; p = 0.044), confirming the expected adverse impact of environmental degradation on population health in contexts with weaker institutional buffering capacity. This result could reflect that, in these economies, pollution is more regulated and institutional frameworks mitigate its direct short-term impacts on health.
• Renewable energy use shows a positive and significant association (0.26; p = 0.047), confirming its role in improving population health and advancing sustainability in these contexts.
The empirical findings provide partial but relevant support for the proposed hypotheses.
Regarding Hypothesis 1—that higher CO2 emissions and higher fossil fuel consumption reduce life expectancy—the results show differentiated dynamics by income group. In high-income European countries, fossil fuel consumption has a positive, statistically significant effect on life expectancy—a counterintuitive result suggesting that, in advanced economies, fossil fuel use remains linked to economic activity and health infrastructure. By contrast, CO2 emissions display a negative but not significant coefficient, indicating that their harmful impact is not yet statistically detectable in the short term. In medium-income countries, fossil fuel consumption is not significant, whereas CO2 emissions show a negative and significant association with life expectancy.
With respect to Hypothesis 2—that renewable energy use improves life expectancy—the evidence is more substantial, albeit asymmetric. In medium-income countries, renewable energy use shows a positive, statistically significant effect, confirming that expanding sustainable energy sources contributes to resilience and yields measurable health benefits. In contrast, in high-income countries, renewables do not exhibit significant effects on life expectancy, which may be explained by the fact that, once countries have reached high levels of welfare and universal health coverage, additional improvements in environmental quality are less likely to produce immediate or detectable changes in longevity within the relatively short time horizon of the analysis.
This study provides relevant evidence by demonstrating how institutional quality and governance capacity condition the relationship between environmental factors and public health across different economic contexts in Europe. The use of a dynamic panel approach reveals that life expectancy depends not only on environmental and economic variables but also on the capacity of institutional systems to deliver stable, coordinated responses. In line with institutional theory, the results show that environmental pressures do not have a homogeneous impact; instead, their effects are mediated by the maturity, regulatory capacity, and coordination of national institutions.23,49
In high-income European countries, the dynamic model indicates that life expectancy shows little temporal persistence, suggesting that institutional maturity already ensures stable levels of well-being. The most striking finding is a positive, statistically significant relationship between fossil fuel consumption and life expectancy, contradicting initial expectations. From an institutionalist perspective, this result can be explained by countries with advanced regulatory frameworks being able to mitigate, in the short term, the health risks associated with fossil fuel use through robust healthcare systems, stringent environmental regulations, and consolidated welfare policies. However, this institutional buffering does not eliminate long-term ecological costs.24,48 The absence of significant effects from CO2 emissions, renewable energies, and GDP per capita reinforces the idea that in advanced economies, institutionalized welfare and sustainability systems absorb marginal variations—shifting the challenge toward regulatory innovation rather than infrastructure expansion.10,25
In contrast, medium-income European countries show greater vulnerability of health outcomes to environmental pressures. In this group, life expectancy exhibits strong temporal dependence, revealing institutional gaps that amplify accumulated vulnerabilities. CO2 emissions have a statistically significant adverse effect on life expectancy, confirming that, in contexts with lower institutional capacity, health systems and environmental regulations fail to protect populations from ecological risks adequately. Conversely, the use of renewable energy shows a positive impact on life expectancy, supporting the hypothesis that ecological transitions generate health co-benefits even under weaker institutional frameworks.21,26,36,49
The policy implications derived from these findings are differentiated. In high-income countries, the main challenge lies in institutional innovation through mechanisms such as dynamic environmental taxation, green public procurement, and integrated health–climate strategies that internalize long-term ecological costs. In middle-income countries, the priority is to strengthen regulatory frameworks, accelerate transitions to renewable energy, and ensure that economic surpluses are directed toward equitable, environmentally sustainable investments. In both groups—but especially in medium-income countries—it is crucial to enhance subnational state capacity and explicitly integrate ecological risks into health policies to build population resilience.
This study contributes to the academic debate by demonstrating that the relationship between environmental degradation and life expectancy in the European Union is not explained exclusively by ecological or economic variables, but is fundamentally mediated by institutional structures and their governance capacity. From an institutionalist perspective, life expectancy emerges as the cumulative outcome of the long-term performance of health systems, infrastructure, and environmental regulation. The findings emphasize that environmental and health challenges must be addressed through governance mechanisms adapted to each country’s level of institutional maturity, thereby avoiding uniform policy prescriptions.
In high-income European countries, where welfare regimes and regulatory frameworks are well consolidated, the results suggest that further improvements in life expectancy depend on institutional innovations that integrate environmental sustainability into social policy. This study includes enhancing fiscal instruments, such as green taxation; promoting intersectoral planning that aligns climate objectives with public health strategies; and strengthening resilience through sustained investment in green infrastructure. These measures align with the broader goals of the European Green Deal and reinforce the ecological foundations of the welfare state.
In medium-income European countries, the evidence shows that institutional fragility and infrastructure gaps increase the vulnerability of health outcomes to environmental pressures. In these contexts, policy efforts should prioritize institutional strengthening, accelerating renewable energy transitions, and developing inclusive governance frameworks that ensure equitable resource distribution. Likewise, regional cooperation, capacity building, and access to international financing are fundamental to overcoming asymmetries and ensuring sustainable improvements in both public health and environmental protection.
The study provides solid empirical evidence against “one-size-fits-all” approaches and supports the need for differentiated, evidence-based policy frameworks that recognize Europe’s institutional diversity. A key implication is that progress in life expectancy amid environmental degradation requires reconfiguring the welfare state around ecological sustainability. This transformation—which integrates environmental management into the design, financing, and delivery of social protection—aligns with the institutionalist theory of the ecological welfare state, which identifies such integration as essential for achieving equitable, resilient, and sustainable long-term development.
All data used in this study are publicly available from the Our World in Data database (https://ourworldindata.org) and the World Bank Open Data platform (https://data.worldbank.org). The dataset includes annual observations for 20 European Union countries covering the period 2000–2020. Data were accessed and downloaded in CSV format in January 2026. The variables employed in the analysis (life expectancy, CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, renewable energy use, and GDP per capita at constant prices) can be retrieved using the same country and period filters described in the Materials and Methods section. No proprietary or restricted-access data were used.
The authors would like to thank the Dirección de Investigación y Desarrollo-DIDE of the Universidad Técnica de Ambato. This article is derived from the research project entitled “Software for the integration of Industry 5.0 and the sustainable development of the Organizations of the Popular and Solidarity Economy of Zone 3 of Ecuador”, approved with Resolution No. UTA-CONIN-2025-0066-R by the Dirección de Investigación y Desarrollo-DIDE of the Universidad Técnica de Ambato, Ecuador.
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Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Energy and Environmental Economics.
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