Keywords
Living systematic review, COVID-19, long covid, lasting effects
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This article is included in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) collection.
This article is included in the Living Evidence collection.
Living systematic review, COVID-19, long covid, lasting effects
In the updated version, we have taken into consideration every point that each reviewer has made and responded to them in detail.
The main changes are as follows. We now explicitly state the primary and secondary outcomes we are interested in, the specific inclusion/exclusion criteria and the data that we will extract. In addition, we now clarify that the analysis will go beyond descriptive statistics and when possible, it will include a meta-analysis. The choice of groups for our subgroup analysis will depend on discussions with our clinical experts, patient advocates and by reviewing the literature. In addition, we further justify the choice of Hoy et al risk of bias assessment checklist, a validated tool for assessing risk of bias in prevalence studies, which can also be used with cohort studies. Finally, we clarify issues that relate to how we dealt with different languages and how often we will be updating the review. Given the fast increasing literature on Long Covid, we have had to add more co-authors to the paper to allow us to cope with the continuous updates of the living systematic review.
See the authors' detailed response to the review by Johannes Siegrist
See the authors' detailed response to the review by Madelon van Wely
The range of documented Covid-19 infections vary from asymptomatic to severe, but the vast majority of patients experience mild to moderate symptoms and do not require hospitalisation1. We have previously conducted a rapid review of the literature to identify which symptoms and signs might differentiate mild and moderate from severe Covid-192. Since then, and as more data are being gathered, there is increasing evidence of a “long-tail” of Covid-19 illness, but limited information about the range and duration of symptoms experienced3 or longer term health complications. A community app developed at King’s College London, which tracks self-reported symptoms, has shown that about one in ten will be sick for three weeks or more (https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term). Some individuals with Covid-19 have reported “fatigue, headaches and tingling nerves” that lasted months after symptom onset4. A recent longitudinal cohort of 143 patients followed after hospitalisation from Covid-19 in Italy reported that 87% had at least one ongoing symptom, most (55%) reporting three or more, at 60 day follow up. Fatigue (53%), dyspnoea (43%), joint pain (27%) and chest pain (22%) were the most common ongoing symptoms5, but there is a variety of other symptoms and complications that have been reported including neurocognitive difficulties, muscle pains and weakness, gastrointestinal upset, rashes, metabolic disruption, thromboembolic conditions and mental health conditions6. A prolonged course of illness has also been reported among people with mild Covid-19 who did not require hospitalisation3,7,8.
The evidence to date remains fragmented as to the onset of symptoms and clinical features, how long symptoms may last, how this relates to the severity of the initial illness, and further lasting impacts to health. A better understanding of patients’ projected recovery from Covid-19 is helpful to patients, healthcare professionals, policymakers and commissioners. The clinical management of persisting symptoms of Covid-19 has started to be addressed in the clinical literature6 and NHS England has issued guidance for the multisystem needs of patients recovering from Covid-199. Our findings could help identify people requiring additional rehabilitation services and, where necessary, specialist referral to establish a secondary cause of their symptoms. Our findings will also be relevant to organisations such as NHS England, which have recently launched an online Covid-19 rehab service supporting patients suffering long-term effects of the disease (https://www.yourcovidrecovery.nhs.uk/) or the British Society of Immunologists, which recently released a briefing note recommending research into the long-term immunological health consequences of Covid-1910.
The aim of this review is to synthesize and continually update the evidence on the characteristics, including prevalence and duration of symptoms and clinical features of post-acute COVID-19, as well as risk factors for developing Long Covid. This will inform clinical and public health management, prevention, and rehabilitation policies.
To address the aim of this study we will conduct a living systematic review (LSR). LSRs are used in areas where research evidence is emerging rapidly, current evidence is uncertain, and new research may influence policy or practice decisions11. These are all features of Covid-19 research, where much about the long-term effects of the disease are still unknown and policy makers are calling for more evidence. The review will be updated approximately every six months, with update cycles under continuous review as the pace of new evidence generated develops through the pandemic. We aim to continue to update the review for up to two years. Our study methodology has been developed and strengthened through consultation with Long Covid Support (a patient support network).
We will include studies that meet the follow criteria:
• Studies following up with at least 100 people with suspected, laboratory confirmed, and/or clinically diagnosed Covid-19
• Studies assessing symptoms or outcomes at 12 or more weeks post Covid-19 onset
• Peer reviewed articles published since 1 January 2020
• No restriction regarding country, setting, or language
We will exclude:
A search of the following databases will be conducted: Pubmed and CINAHL through the EBSCO database host for general health peer-reviewed articles and Global Health for global peer-reviewed articles through the Ovid database host. In addition, we will search Google Scholar for grey literature. We will also conduct complementary searches using the WHO Global Research Database on Covid-19 and LitCOVID as two databases that bring together evidence on Covid-19 from a worldwide dataset. A ‘backwards’ snowball search will be conducted for the references of systematic reviews. Finally, we will contact experts in the field and use social media to identify relevant studies.
We will search using controlled subject headings and keywords of the following concepts: Terms related to 1) COVID-19 OR COVID OR SARS-CoV-2; 2) symptoms OR clinical features OR signs OR characteristics OR sequelae OR complications; 3) long-term OR post-acute OR long-tail OR persistent OR chronic COVID OR long COVID OR post discharge OR prolonged symptoms OR long haul. The search terms were piloted on Pubmed and CINAHL through the EBSCO database host the week starting 14th September 2020 to ensure that high profile research articles on long covid were included. No important studies were missed.
An example is shown below:
Search results will be managed and screened using a review online platform, Rayyan12. Initial screening of titles and abstracts as well as full text screening against the inclusion criteria will be done by two reviewers independently. Non-English articles will be translated using Google Translate or reviewed by a reviewer with good knowledge of the language. Disagreements for inclusion will be resolved by consensus. Where disagreements cannot be resolved, a third researcher will review the papers to make the final decision.
We will be using the Hoy et al. checklist13 to critically appraise the studies included in the review, a validated tool for assessing risk of bias in prevalence studies.
The following information will be extracted from each study based on an extraction form informed by a previous review2: study aim, country of study, setting, method, study design, population size and characteristics, types and frequency of symptoms reported, onset and duration of symptoms, treatment and possible risk factors. Data extraction will be performed by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer. Disagreements will be resolved through discussion and consensus.
The primary outcome is to characterise the prevalence of symptoms and complications of long term Covid-19 in different populations. Secondary outcomes include diagnostics and risk factors for developing different sequelae.
We will use descriptive analysis, and present proportion of symptoms and estimate their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the exact method. When more than two studies provide information on a symptom, we will perform a meta-analysis using a random intercept logistic regression model. Heterogeneity between estimates will be assessed using the I2 statistic.
Where data is available, we will explore key factors that affect prevalence estimates, e.g. hospitalisation, settings, location of the study, sex and follow-up timing using subgroup analysis and meta-regression analysis. We will identify these factors by discussing with our clinical experts and patient advocates and by reviewing the literature. The division for key factors used in subgroup analysis will depend on the availability of reported data across studies. We will align the division with the literature and expert opinions to form exploratory analysis and to help the interpretation.
We will also conduct sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of high risk of bias studies and conventional statistical methods on the prevalence estimates, e.g. Freeman-Tukey Double arcsine transformation using inverse variance meta-analysis. All analysis and data presentation will be performed using meta and ggplot2 in R (version 4.0.5 or above) via RStudio (version 1.3.1093 or above).
We will work with patient advocates to present the data to facilitate transcription to lay audiences.
This protocol report is structured according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocols (PRISMA-P) statement guidelines14, was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020211131, 25 September 2020). The protocol will be updated as we progress with the living review as and if needed. CS is the guarantor for this study.
Figshare: PRISMA-P checklist for “What are the long-term symptoms and complications of COVID-19: a protocol for a living systematic review”. https://doi.org/10.25383/city.13187456.v115.
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Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Epidemiology, meta-analyses, Obstetrics and Gynaecology
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Social epidemiology systematic reviews
Is the rationale for, and objectives of, the study clearly described?
Partly
Is the study design appropriate for the research question?
Yes
Are sufficient details of the methods provided to allow replication by others?
No
Are the datasets clearly presented in a useable and accessible format?
Partly
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Epidemiology, meta-analyses, Obstetrics and Gynaecology
Is the rationale for, and objectives of, the study clearly described?
Yes
Is the study design appropriate for the research question?
Yes
Are sufficient details of the methods provided to allow replication by others?
Partly
Are the datasets clearly presented in a useable and accessible format?
Not applicable
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Social epidemiology systematic reviews
Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article:
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Version 2 (revision) 27 Aug 21 |
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Version 1 14 Dec 20 |
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Provide sufficient details of any financial or non-financial competing interests to enable users to assess whether your comments might lead a reasonable person to question your impartiality. Consider the following examples, but note that this is not an exhaustive list:
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